Warning: Travel with Care

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It is Eastertide in Rome, April in Paris and the eve of Passover in Jerusalem. But suddenly, for millions of American tourists, this is chiefly the season for caution in making travel plans. In 1986, in sharp contrast to the overseas-travel surge of a year ago, Americans and their sought-after dollars are making themselves scarce in many parts of Western Europe and the Mediterranean. The phones of travel agents are as busy as ever, but many of the callers now want to change their vacation plans. Some are canceling their trips abroad entirely. Others are choosing more circuitous means and routes to reach their destinations, rather than having to pass through airports in Rome, Athens and other cities along the Mediterranean littoral. The fear of terrorism has suddenly become an important factor in the $250 billion U.S. travel industry.

Many U.S. holidaymakers are hurriedly lining up presumably safer summer excursions, including Caribbean cruises and even charter tours to Moscow. But above all, Americans this year are deciding that they would rather take in the splendors of their own land, on motor-home jaunts to Disney World, camping trips to U.S. national parks, and surfing safaris to Hawaii. The travel industry expects a jump of 10% or more in domestic bookings this year. Says Harold Van Sumeren, president of the Chamber of Commerce in Traverse City, Mich., a boating and camping mecca: "We're really anticipating one of the biggest and finest summer seasons we've ever had."

The apprehension over travel to Europe and the Mediterranean is a direct result of the recent rash of bloody attacks directed against U.S. citizens in Italy and West Germany, of rioting in Egypt and of random bombings in France. Last week travelers had further cause to be spooked by the harsh words and bellicose gestures flying between the U.S. and Libya. Reasons other than the terrorism scare, such as a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar abroad and an abundance of cheap gasoline at home, are also involved in the shuffle of itineraries. Even so, says Sam Massell, an Atlanta travel agent, "if you're going on vacation, you want to start off happy. You're not supposed to go where you have to think about stress management."

Edward and Ginger Levy, of Franklin Lakes, N.J., had planned to spend their 30th wedding anniversary on a $4,000 Mediterranean cruise this month, but switched to a $1,000 jaunt to Toronto instead and saved the rest of the money. Herbert and Judith Monheit, of Elkins Park, Pa., changed their May vacation destination from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia at the urging of family members. Says Herbert: "It sort of wore on us. I know the odds (of a terrorist attack) are infinitesimal, but why take the chance?"

The change in U.S. traveling patterns is already starting to have substantial effects. Until late last year, U.S. travel to Europe and the Mediterranean was setting records, thanks partly to the buying power of the strong dollar. Some 6.4 million Americans visited European countries in 1985, up from 5.8 million the previous year. Now the trade magazine Travel Industry Monthly expects European tourism by Americans to fall by about 25% in 1986. Western Europe's total revenue from U.S. tourists is expected to drop by $2 billion in 1986, from a record $7 billion last year.