South Africa Playing for Time

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In terms of style, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and P.W. Botha have little in common. Yet through the years, the amiable U.S. President, the iron-willed British Prime Minister and the pugnacious South African State President have each demonstrated an uncanny ability to tough their way through political adversity, often using the sheer force of personality to get their way. As the international calls for economic sanctions against South Africa grow, however, all three leaders resemble conductors who are fast losing control of their orchestras.

This week the three will be forced to continue playing for time. Reagan is scheduled to make a major speech outlining his Administration's policy toward South Africa. In addition, Secretary of State George Shultz will go before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to defend the Administration's program of relying on quiet diplomacy to nudge Pretoria toward making changes in its apartheid system.

Meanwhile, Thatcher will pursue her last-ditch diplomatic initiative in an attempt to tame insistent calls for sanctions within the 49-member Commonwealth. Foreign Secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe will head to Pretoria with a two-pronged message for Botha: release imprisoned Black Leader Nelson Mandela and lift the ban on the African National Congress. Though Botha has agreed to meet with Howe, the flurry of diplomacy is not expected to change the State President's position. Warned Botha last week: "We are a strong, proud nation with the faith and ability to ensure our future. We are not a nation of jellyfish."

Reagan will need to use all his famous political skill to push back the increasing sentiment for strong sanctions that is sweeping Capitol Hill. Last month the House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to clamp a total trade embargo on South Africa and force U.S. companies to withdraw their investments. Last week the Senate headed down a similar path as it considered three draft bills calling for sanctions. "The policy of the Administration is a disgrace and an embarrassment," charged Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy. "The Congress must act now to put the U.S. back on the right side of history."

Almost a year has passed since Reagan deftly outflanked a congressional sanctions bill by imposing limited trade restrictions on South Africa. Yet little has happened to indicate that the Administration's trade restraints and quiet diplomacy have met with any success. Botha's halfhearted gestures at reform have been upstaged by the state of emergency, now in its seventh week. The intransigence of his Nationalist government has only hardened antiapartheid sentiment among U.S. politicians and voters. More and more legislators feel that 1) the American public wants sanctions, and 2) economic measures are the only remaining leverage for change in South Africa. The sanctions movement got another hefty boost last week when California Governor George Deukmejian proposed total divestiture of state funds -- to the tune of some $9 billion -- from companies doing business with South Africa.