Suspending Their Judgment a Time Poll Shows

Ever the trouper, Ronald Reagan is back on the campaign trail this fall, urging voters to choose Republicans in November's Senate races lest his conservative revolution be stymied by a Democratic majority. "I can't have my hands tied by a totally hostile Congress," Reagan has told audiences in California, Colorado, Louisiana and Alabama.

But the President's message may not be getting through, according to a survey conducted for TIME this month by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman.* Despite Reagan's still spectacular popularity, few people seem persuaded by his endorsements of congressional candidates: 70% of those questioned said a presidential speech urging them to choose a certain candidate would make no difference in how they voted. In fact, 73% of Republicans said they would be utterly unswayed by the Reagan seal of approval.

On the eve of the final election of the Reagan presidency, the TIME survey found the proportion of Democrats to Republicans has continued to shrink. In 1980, fully 49% of those surveyed called themselves Democrats and only 28% Republicans. Today the numbers are 34% and 24%. While in 1980, 23% of the respondents said they did not belong to either party, today the figure has grown to 42%. But the historic realignment that some political observers predicted after the President's 1984 landslide re-election has not yet occurred. Instead, the U.S. is undergoing a process that might be called "dealignment." Only 19% of Americans say they are "loyal Democrats who vote mostly for Democratic candidates," and a mere 13% describe themselves as loyal Republican voters. Three out of five people claim they switch between the parties in the voting booth.

This lack of political loyalty reflects contradictory attitudes about the strengths and weaknesses of the two parties. Asked which party can better deal with the problems facing the country, 28% of respondents cite the Republicans and 21% the Democrats (46% say there is no real difference between the two). But when Americans are asked which party is better at looking out for people's interests in their area, the numbers

reverse: 34% say the Democrats, 19% the Republicans.

Generally, people believe the Republicans are more competent than the Democrats on economic issues: in keeping the country strong and prosperous (the G.O.P. leads 37% to 23%), dealing with inflation (32% to 18%) and reducing the federal-budget deficit (28% to 23%). The Democrats are considered more reliable on social issues: in ensuring the rights of women and minorities (38% to 15%), providing jobs for the unemployed (37% to 20%), and helping the middle class (37% to 24%). On foreign policy, Republicans are viewed as being better at dealing with the Soviet Union (37% to 20%), but Democrats and Republicans are considered about even in terms of keeping the country out of war (28% and 26% respectively).

This ambivalence means that the November elections are likely to produce what Republican Political Analyst Kevin Phillips calls a "transitional electorate" without a strong commitment either to the status quo or to change. When the TIME survey asked respondents how they would vote "if the election were held right now," 37% chose the Democrats and 33% the Republicans. A large number, 26%, were undecided. Independent voters leaned to the Republican candidates, 31% to 26%, with 39% undecided.