Middle East in Search of Partners

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Mubarak's initiative grew out of an accord signed by Arafat and Jordan's King Hussein in Amman last month. That agreement, which el Baz helped draft, is an ambiguous document that calls for a joint Jordanian-P.L.O. delegation to negotiate for Palestinian rights within "the proposed confederated Arab states of Jordan and Palestine." Though the accord does not specifically demand the creation of a separate Palestinian state, it offers little incentive to Israel to enter negotiations. Hussein and Arafat call upon Israel to withdraw from all occupied Arab territory--the West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights--but do not promise to recognize Israel in return. While the accord vaguely alludes to a "comprehensive peace" based on U.N. resolutions, it does not specifically refer to Security Council Resolution 242, which implicitly acknowledges Israel's right to exist within secure borders.

Barely had the Amman accord been made public when P.L.O. leaders began issuing reservations. Farouk Kaddoumi, an Arafat confidant, insisted on the creation of a separate Palestinian state. Ahmed Abdel-Rahman, Arafat's spokesman, demanded that a unified Arab delegation, rather than simply a joint Jordanian-Palestinian team, negotiate with Israel. In a radio interview, Arafat said he appreciated Mubarak's efforts, but insisted on an international peace conference rather than bilateral talks with Israel.

So far, Hussein has refrained from criticizing the Mubarak scheme. The Jordanian monarch, who was vacationing in Europe last week, is scheduled to meet with Mubarak in Egypt this week. Still stung by the rejection of the 1982 Reagan Middle East peace plan by Israel and much of the Arab world, U.S. officials remain skeptical that the Egyptian President can bring together the Israelis, Jordanians and Palestinians, with or without the P.L.O.'s blessing. Nonetheless, State Department officials look forward to discussing both Mubarak's plan and the Hussein-Arafat accord with the Egyptian President when he visits Washington early next week. "What we see so far is just the beginning of a dialogue," explains a senior U.S. official. "It is still going in different directions. It would be a mistake for us to get involved until the pattern is clearer."

) At some point, that pattern will have to include Syria, which has the muscle to hinder any settlement attempt. The Syrian Cabinet last week declared its intention to undermine the Mubarak-Hussein-Arafat initiative. Anyone who doubts Syria's resolve need only look at south Lebanon, where Shi'ite Muslims, inspired in part by Damascus' tough line vis-a-vis Israel, continue to attack Israeli forces. The Israelis, who are in the midst of withdrawing from south Lebanon, retaliated last week by staging raids on several Shi'ite villages suspected of harboring guerrillas. Against the backdrop of such continuing violence in Lebanon, the peace efforts of Mubarak and Peres appeared to take on added urgency.