The G.O.P.'s Silver Lining

The victory was impressive. The winning party picked up eight seats across the nation, making historic breakthroughs in the South that seemed to suggest a continuing realignment of regional political loyalties. This was not the smashing Democratic coup in Senate races; it was the Republicans' success in slashing the Democrats' domination of the nation's gubernatorial mansions from a count of 34 to 16 to just 26 to 24. In an otherwise cloudy Election Day for the G.O.P., Republican strategists justifiably flaunted this silver lining.

Republicans will now govern the Sunbelt's three largest states: California, Texas and Florida. For the first time since Reconstruction, Alabama will have a Republican Governor, and for only the second time in this century, a Republican will lead South Carolina. The G.O.P. captured governorships being vacated by Democrats in Maine, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arizona and New Mexico. In Wisconsin, Republican Challenger Tommy Thompson ousted incumbent Democrat Anthony Earl. Democrats managed to win G.O.P.-held governorships in just three states: Oregon, Tennessee and Pennsylvania.

But the results did not constitute the sweeping trend toward a realignment of regional politics that Republicans had sought. Defying tidy analysis, eleven states chose candidates from opposing parties for Senator and Governor. Unlike the Senate contests, the Governors' races found the Democrats far more vulnerable: 27 of 36 seats at stake had been held by Democrats. Yet in the West, where eight Democratic executive mansions were at risk, Republicans managed a net gain of only one.

The Republican gains could provide the party with significant organizational strength for the 1988 presidential campaigns. But as New Hampshire Republican Governor John Sununu notes, "The easiest way to build up party structure is to hold the statehouses." And at this more basic level, Democrats picked up about 180 state legislative seats nationally, and will apparently control both chambers of the legislatures in 27 states, one more than at present. Republicans will dominate both houses in just nine states, two fewer than before.

Many gubernatorial races were influenced more by special circumstances than by shifting party loyalties. Texas Republican Bill Clements won back his office from Mark White, the Democrat who had defeated him four years ago. Texas, moreover, suffers heavily from depressed oil prices, and White had the courage -- some might say the foolhardiness -- to raise taxes twice in an attempt to keep his state solvent. Alabama's Democrats went through such a bloodletting to determine the winner of their primary that Republican Guy Hunt benefited from the fratricide.