Iraq Noisy Threats, Silent Guns

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Even as the tales of covert diplomacy continued to emanate from Washington, Tehran and elsewhere, the debilitating and indecisive six-year-old war between Iran and Iraq dragged on. Twice last week Iraqi warplanes struck deep into Iran, hitting first a petrochemical complex at the port of Bandar Khomeini and then an oil refinery and a power station in Isfahan. In response, Tehran Radio announced that Iranian artillery units would retaliate by shelling targets in southern Iraq. The station warned Iraqi civilians to evacuate Basra, Iraq's second largest city, as well as Umm Qasr, at the head of the Persian Gulf, and Khanaqin, a town northeast of Baghdad.

For weeks there have been reports that Iran has once again massed a fighting force of 650,000 troops along the south-central border. Indeed, most analysts still believe some sort of Iranian attack is in the offing. Originally it was expected before the beginning of the rainy season, which has arrived and will last until February. Now the speculation is that the Iranians may attempt a surprise bad-weather offensive in which Iraq's superiority in tanks and air power would be reduced by mud and thick cloud cover.

Some diplomats theorize that the Iranians are stalling until their pilots have learned to fly the fighter jets that the Chinese agreed to sell Iran last summer. Others wonder whether the Iranian war effort may at last be faltering, a notion that is dismissed by many observers. Says an Iraqi official in Baghdad: "When Khomeini was in exile in Paris, he said he had three enemies: the Shah, Jimmy Carter and (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein. He brought down the Shah, he thinks he brought down Carter through the hostage crisis, and now he's intent on achieving his third aim."

Each side is believed to have about a million men under arms. That is a particularly heavy burden for Iraq, whose population is only 15 million, vs. Iran's 48 million. After a long stalemate, the military balance shifted somewhat last February, when the Iranians captured the Fao peninsula in southern Iraq and Iraqi forces failed to retake it despite massive bombardment and the alleged use of mustard gas. The Iraqis hit back by seizing the Iranian border town of Mehran in May, but were later forced to give it up.

Ever since, Iraq has been waging a slow-paced defensive struggle, relying on its air force to strike at Iranian targets. In the process, Iranian oil production has been reduced over the past year from 1.6 million bbl. a day to less than l million bbl., the minimum thought necessary to sustain Tehran's war effort. President Saddam Hussein, who invaded Iran in September 1980 out of fear that Khomeini's fundamentalist Shi'ite revolution would spread to Iraq, where the Shi'as constitute more than half the population, has little choice but to fight on as best he can.

Iran's strategy, in contrast, is based on its superiority in manpower. By concentrating troops along a wide front, Iran manages to keep Iraq off-balance and its own forces engaged. Despite the terrible cost in lives (an estimated 250,000 Iranians have perished, vs. 100,000 Iraqis thus far), the war has served a valuable purpose for Khomeini by distracting Iranians from the failure of the revolution. While most observers believe that not even the death of the 86-year-old leader would bring an Iranian withdrawal, it would probably soften Tehran's attitude toward negotiations.