The Last Battles

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Meanwhile, the President has shown no sign of demanding the agreement within his own Administration that must precede a new approach to the Kremlin. To the contrary, a distracted President has permitted what looks like a movement away from arms control. Two signs: 1) The Pentagon is pushing for $115 million in extra funds to develop a huge space vehicle that could launch Star Wars hardware into orbit. One Administration official interprets the move as a "signal that we have to get on with SDI before arms control is allowed to get in the way."

2) Having already deliberately exceeded one of the unratified SALT II limits on nuclear weapons by equipping more B-52 bombers with cruise missiles, the Administration is proceeding with construction of radar installations in England and Greenland and other programs that raise questions about U.S. compliance with the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty as well.

On the domestic policy front, Reagan's advisers have been hamstrung by the overriding necessity to slash the budget deficit. They simply cannot propose anything that would cost much money. Thus, though the Administration is committed to some sort of proposal to help the elderly pay the cost of catastrophic illness, it may come up with a modest plan that would serve merely as a starting point for Congress to write a more ambitious scheme.

Farm policy is likely to be the focus of one of the hottest fights on Capitol Hill. Reagan will again propose reductions in the subsidies that spiraled from $4 billion in 1981 to nearly $26 billion last year, along with a strict limit on payments to any one farmer. Democrats agree that subsidies and surpluses have got out of hand, but the approach some advocate is rigid, mandatory production controls that are anathema to the Administration.

The Administration will try to get ahead of protectionist sentiment in Congress by submitting its own trade bill this year. Two probable components: new assistance for workers who have lost their jobs because of import competition, and a relaxation of antitrust laws to make it easier for American companies to collaborate against foreign rivals. In addition, Reagan will ask for renewed authority to negotiate agreements aimed at opening foreign markets to American exports. These steps would take a long time to bring any measurable improvement in the gargantuan American trade deficit. Fundamentally, Administration spokesmen argue, the direct curbs on imports that some Democrats want are unnecessary as well as unwise. The trade deficit has flattened out and will begin to decline in 1987, they say, because of the falling value of the dollar. That argument was weakened by last week's figures: after dropping for three months, the trade deficit in November abruptly shot up to $19.2 billion, by far the worst one-month figure ever.

On other matters, too, Reagan will face a newly powerful, and newly assertive, Democratic opposition. West Virginia's Byrd goes so far as to boast that the "leadership of the Senate is going to set the agenda, not the White House." That is questionable. On the key subject of trade, for example, the Democrats seem to have no clearer ideas than the Administration on what should be done. But there is a real danger of deadlock between a President unable to get his programs through Congress and Democrats incapable of overriding White House vetoes.