Iranscam's Fallout

With the Reagan Administration suffering its worst woes since taking office, increasing numbers of voters are coming around to the view that 1988 might be the time for a change in political direction. A poll taken last week for TIME by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman* indicates that 41% of Americans think "it would be better for the country" if the next President were a Democrat, 31% & think the next President should be a Republican, and 19% say it makes no difference. That is a sharp gain for Democrats since last September, when only 33% agreed that after eight years of Ronald Reagan, the nation would be better served by a Democrat.

Regardless of who the next President may be or which party he or she represents, a majority (60%) of Americans hope that the winner's policies will be "different" from the Reagan Administration's; among Republicans, 33% voice that hope. Just four months ago only 42% of Americans said they yearned for a change in direction from the next White House.

While Vice President George Bush still retains a big lead among Republicans as the first choice for his party's presidential nomination, he has been hurt by the Iran-contra scandal. Fully 48% of all Americans (and 34% of Republicans) believe Bush was more deeply involved in Iranscam than he has so far told the American public. Bush's favorable image among Republicans and independents has fallen from 68% to 63% since a similar TIME poll last May. In that survey, Bush and Kansas Senator Robert Dole had the same 68% favorable rating; Dole has since dropped too, to 64%. The Vice President also suffers by comparison when Republicans are asked to describe the political characteristics of likely G.O.P. candidates. Among Republicans who say they are familiar with

Dole, for example, 81% consider him a "strong and decisive leader." Only 50% say the same about Bush. Dole also scores better among Republicans for such qualities as trustworthiness and having new ideas and "sympathy for the problems of ordinary people." Bush edges out Dole only on having the "experience to be President." Republican voters are less familiar with Jack Kemp (only 28% of Republicans said they know a lot or even a little about Kemp), but 71% of those who know of the New York Congressman call him a strong leader. The supply-sider scores well with Republicans for having new ideas, but only 47% see Kemp as having enough experience for the Oval Office.

Evangelist Pat Robertson, who has been shadowing Kemp's efforts to woo conservatives, has lost ground among voters since news reports appeared last September alleging that he dodged combat duty in Korea. Robertson's favorable rating among Republicans and independents has dived 20 percentage points since last May, to 27%, and 56% of those familiar with Robertson now say they have a "generally unfavorable" impression of him. The combative White House communications director, Patrick Buchanan, who has been dropping hints about running for President, also has a high negative rating: 41% of Republicans and independents familiar with Buchanan have an unfavorable impression of him; 32% were favorable.