Coping with The Unfathomable

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"I think there's no point in trying to predict what the Iranians are going to do. We simply have a task to do, and we're going to go ahead and do it." So said Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, reflecting what was probably the Reagan Administration's dominant view of the challenge posed by Tehran. But even as the Administration was being assailed for the lack of foresight in its gulf policy, the Pentagon was thinking hard about what to do in the event of an Iranian attack on U.S. warships in the waterway. Beyond that, other questions loomed. How could immediate tensions in the region be eased? Above all, what can Western governments, and the U.S. in particular, do to cope with a radically unpredictable state like Iran?

The military questions alone threatened to be an enormously nuanced exercise. Some strategists have already been severely critical of the Administration for failing to hit back at Iran when the reflagged tanker Bridgeton struck a mine last month. "We should have pulverized Farsi Island," fumed Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter's National Security Adviser. "All this power cringing in the area is a terrible embarrassment."

For its part, the Administration insists that its policy is to retaliate swiftly against attacks on the gulf convoy -- once the aggressor has been accurately identified. Discussing the Bridgeton incident recently, for example, Weinberger asserted that it is impossible to know who laid the mine. "They don't leave fingerprints," said the Secretary curtly.

Other military experts, like Washington's Anthony Cordesman, consultant and author of the forthcoming book The Iran-Iraq War: 1984-1987, counsel more caution. Says Cordesman: "The key factor is to allow Iran to determine the level of escalation. The U.S. must not be perceived as escalating the conflict." U.S. military planners last week were hewing closely to Cordesman's line and planning for contingencies based on the nature of any foreseeable Iranian provocations. If Iran were to fire upon an American vessel with its Chinese-made Silkworm missiles, for example, the U.S. would most likely seek to destroy the missile sites. Bombers aboard the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Constellation, based just outside the gulf, could be dispatched on short notice. The Silkworms, situated in isolated spots along the gulf and manned by small crews, could be taken out cleanly.

If Iran chose to escalate in other ways that could be directly traced to Tehran, such as overt mining of gulf waters or frontal attacks on the reflagged tankers, the Pentagon has a menu of additional options. One choice is retaliatory U.S. mining around the Iranian oil refinery at Kharg Island or around the major port of Bushehr, two crucial harbors for Iranian sea trade. If more aggressive U.S. strikes were needed, particularly in retaliation for direct attacks on the tankers, bombers from the Constellation could hit Iranian airfields and key petroleum-refining installations with ease.