Meanwhile, In El Salvador . . .

Jose Napoleon Duarte has enjoyed his share of lucky breaks over the years, but even he must appreciate the propitious timing of the latest Central American peace proposal. Often cited as the showcase of U.S. efforts to bolster democracy in Central America, El Salvador is in deepening trouble. The civil war that has claimed 70,000 lives in eight years shows no sign of winding down. A much heralded campaign to revive the economy has foundered. Even the President's most striking accomplishment, the sharp reduction in killings by right-wing Salvadoran death squads, has been compromised by a recent spate of murders of peasants who were linked to the guerrillas. As a result, Salvadorans are displaying growing impatience with the U.S.-supported Duarte, 61.

Duarte's best hope now is that the Guatemala peace initiative will force the Salvadoran rebels to lay down their arms. Under the accord, outside aid to all guerrilla groups must cease, which means that clandestine arms shipments to the guerrillas from Cuba and Nicaragua would stop. Says a State Department official: "It's a definite plus for the Salvadoran government."

Perhaps. The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front showed little interest in the peace plan when it was first discussed in February, but the rebels were forced to pay closer attention when Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega joined Duarte in affixing his signature to the accord two weeks ago. Last week Duarte proposed that the rebels sit down with his government on Sept. 15 to discuss a cease-fire and amnesty. The rebels agreed to talk but not under the aegis of the Guatemala Plan.

If the accord is ultimately implemented without rebel participation, U.S. officials warn that the F.M.L.N. will be able to threaten Duarte's government even if outside military aid is cut off. Operating in small bands and able to retreat to rural hideaways, the rebels could continue to inflict damage in the countryside. Indeed, on the very day that Duarte signed the accord, guerrillas attacked a Salvadoran town called El Triunfo and burned down three public buildings, including the mayor's office. Only days earlier, the insurgents blew up a bridge in Usulutan province, the ninth major span hit in the past seven weeks.

Shortly after his election in 1984, Duarte strode into the small town of La Palma for a dramatic, highly publicized meeting with guerrilla representatives. Subsequent attempts at talks fizzled, however. For a while, it did not seem to matter. Strengthened by dozens of U.S.-supplied helicopter gunships, the 52,000-strong Salvadoran army seemed to be slowly gaining the initiative. F.M.L.N. forces dwindled from an estimated 11,000 to around 7,000, and they alienated supporters by torching buses and planting land mines, maiming innocent civilians.