Central America Whose Peace Plan Is It Anyway?

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The Sandinistas said last week they might declare a unilateral cease-fire in the contra war and continued to drop hints that the opposition daily La Prensa might be allowed to publish soon. Managua and Washington, however, exchanged sharp words after U.S. Education Secretary William Bennett encountered anti-U.S. protesters while on a visit to the Nicaraguan capital. In El Salvador a meeting between President Jose Napoleon Duarte and the country's leftist guerrillas failed to occur, aborted by Duarte's demand that the rebels first lay down their arms. Yet all hope was not lost. Leaders of the guerrilla coalition met with Arias for the second time in two weeks. "We've made progress toward a dialogue," said Guillermo Ungo, one of the rebels' political leaders, after the session. "I hope we can meet with President Duarte by the end of the month."

Still, there was cause to worry that the cease-fire scheduled for Nov. 7 would not hold. Since the signing of the Guatemala accord, the five Presidents have had little direct contact. The first meeting of the group's foreign ministers ended in chaos, and the second, held last week in Managua, resulted in little progress. Already there is talk of a "one-up, one-down" outcome, meaning that the provisions of the plan may prove effective in Nicaragua but not in El Salvador, or vice versa.

As the plan's architect, Arias has much at stake. The son of a wealthy coffee-plantation owner who studied in both the U.S. and England, Arias, 46, based his presidential campaign last year on the theme "Peace with Arias." On the day of his inauguration, he told U.S. Ambassador Lewis Tambs that the contras could no longer use a U.S.-built airstrip in northern Costa Rica, near the Nicaraguan border. When the order was ignored, Arias became more determined. A year later he unveiled a peace proposal that became the foundation for the accord adopted in Guatemala City. "Reagan believes that our plan has loopholes, and I accept that it might," Arias says. "No human work is perfect. But now the ball is in the court of the Central Americans."

That is not quite true. To some who support the Guatemala accord, Reagan's request for $270 million in contra aid before the Nov. 7 cease-fire seems not so much a way to pressure the Sandinistas as a ploy to sabotage Arias' proposal. Arias remains hopeful. "I am obliged to be an optimist," he says. "I really hope that the Americans will give us the opportunity until Nov. 7 to show that we have the will to find peace in Central America." Arias will need all his considerable optimism, charm and determination to persuade the White House that a fresh infusion of funds to the contras is a step in the wrong direction.