The Folks with First Say

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But at least among the Republicans, it seems possible to frame the right questions. Can Dole maintain his apparent lead, or will his homespun, one-of- us posturing ring hollow amid talk of $600,000 family income and convoluted blind-trust transactions? Will Bush's attempts at modified full disclosure put Iranscam to rest and allow him to surge from behind with a last-minute television blitz? Can Pat Robertson somehow squeeze into second place with his still largely invisible army of politicized charismatics? As for Jack Kemp and Pete du Pont, will weak finishes in the caucuses doom their last-ditch efforts in New Hampshire?

Among the Democrats, there is only one near certainty: Albert Gore, who has shrewdly and vociferously forsaken Iowa to concentrate on the Super Tuesday primaries in the South, will probably finish last. Otherwise, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller is right when he calls the Democratic race the "most volatile campaign I've ever seen." Since Gary Hart's initial withdrawal last May, no Democrat has been able to maintain a firm lead. "As campaigns come into Iowa and get organized, for a moment they're hot," says Bonnie Campbell, who chairs the state party. "It happened to Dick Gephardt, it happened to Mike Dukakis, and now it's happening to Paul Simon. But at some point, you bump up against a ceiling."

Most political organizers believe Simon remains the candidate to beat, although widespread skepticism about his deficit arithmetic has taken a toll. The recent TIME poll gives Hart a weak lead, but the once defrocked candidate will have trouble mobilizing enough of this protest vote on caucus night, if only because he has no organization. As in 1984, when he received less than 2% support, Jesse Jackson attracts more curiosity than likely votes. But Bruce Babbitt, who lags at the bottom of most polls, has the organization to rebound dramatically: his outspoken candor has transformed him into the media's pinup of the month.

Viewed from almost any vantage point, the talismanic importance of the Iowa caucuses is bizarre. They are not buttressed by tradition: until Jimmy Carter discovered media magic there in 1976, Iowa was not even as important as neighboring Nebraska in the presidential-selection process. The caucuses are not a perfect bellwether either: Iowans embraced George Bush in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984; both then lost the New Hampshire primary. Turnout for the caucuses is small compared with most early-primary states: New Hampshire voters are about four times as likely to participate as their Iowa counterparts. As a prominent Des Moines attorney who has attended every Democratic caucus since 1976 asked quietly, "Why Iowa? What have we done to deserve all this attention? We're really not that typical."