The Folks with First Say

Monday, Jan. 25, 1988 By WALTER SHAPIRO

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Gephardt, in contrast, is almost hyperactive. His strongest commercial is one in which he hammers home the protectionist message that, because of trade barriers, a $10,000 Chrysler K-car costs $48,000 in Korea. The ads have helped Gephardt jump in the polls, and once again he appears within striking distance of the leaders in Iowa. Dukakis cannot seem to decide on an approach: his ads range from soporific issue spots to an ill-defined image appeal. In contrast, Babbitt is leading with his strength: in a recently aired commercial, an unseen narrator reads the candidate's favorable press notices in the Los Angeles Times, the New Republic and TIME. As for Kemp and du Pont, both trying to squeeze out Robertson for third place, their media strategies amount to little more than a "Hail Mary" forward pass. Both are stressing their favorite long-shot issues: tax cuts for Kemp and restructured Social Security for du Pont.

Campaign organizers in both parties have a saying they repeat in almost mantra-like fashion: "Organize, organize, organize, and then get hot at the end." After a sizzling campaign week to open the New Year, both Bush and Dole decided they did not like it so hot so soon. For most of last week, the G.O.P. front runners went into a defensive crouch fending off their personal demons: the Iran-contra affair for Bush and for Dole a series of murky questions about the handling of his wife Elizabeth's blind trust. The Kansas Senator was provoked to fire his finance chairman, who was also the administrator of the trust. Neither of these press flaps seems to have much traction; even private Dole polls say Bush has not been damaged by Iranscam in Iowa. But by the weekend, the Battling Bickersons of G.O.P. politics were at it again, as Bush and Dole clashed at a New Hampshire debate over the release of their voluminous tax returns.

The stakes in Iowa are far different for Bush than for Dole. Buoyed by a messy but welcome victory in Michigan's county conventions last week -- an episode so byzantine and now so mired in legal disputes that it would have had an impact only if Bush had been badly beaten -- the Vice President can afford to come in second in Iowa, though not by an embarrassing margin. His money and broad organization would allow him a good chance to recoup in New Hampshire eight days later. But defeat is a luxury that Dole can ill afford. Peter Teeley, the Bush campaign spokesman, is exaggerating when he claims, "If we win Iowa, it's all over. We'd have beaten Dole in his own backyard." In truth, the minority leader has enough money to survive defeat. But it is impossible to derail a sitting Vice President unless you win somewhere, and Iowa is Dole's best hope.

Pat Robertson is the wild card. Though his support is narrow and his negatives are Nixonian (56% in the latest nationwide TIME poll view him "unfavorably"), Robertson's adherents are deeply committed. They will work for him and round up other "spirit-filled" supporters on caucus night. If the turnout is low, his committed crusaders could jolt the party establishment; even Bush insiders concede that Robertson might finish second. That would come close to crippling whoever runs third and prompt party regulars to rally round the Iowa winner as a way of derailing Robertson.