The Folks with First Say

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The conventional Democratic contenders in Iowa -- Simon, Dukakis, Gephardt and Babbitt -- have been stuck on a treadmill devoid of any themes that arouse half the curiosity of Gary Hart's dramatic return from exile. Simon seems the beneficiary of this placid status quo, while Dukakis just drifts, perhaps from New-Hampshire-is-next overconfidence. But Babbitt and Gephardt, in different ways, have at last seized on what they believe is a cutting issue in Iowa: populism.

Babbitt framed the issue by intervening in a local dispute over whether IBP, a militantly antiunion meat packer with a woeful safety record, should build a plant in Manchester, Iowa. The controversy might seem arcane to outsiders, but IBP symbolizes antiunion trends that arouse deep feelings among Iowa workers. Babbitt won statewide headlines by labeling IBP a "corporate outlaw" and a "monument to everything shabby . . . in the American economy." It was not empty rhetoric, since Babbitt artfully used IBP as a bridge to dramatize his own detailed proposals for employee participation and "workplace democracy." Gephardt has long wooed Iowa union members and farmers with two pieces of special-interest legislation: a protectionist trade bill and an agricultural program that would raise crop prices. This give-them-what-they-want stance may make political sense, but it has also won Gephardt the enmity of editorial writers, including those at the Des Moines Register. In response, Gephardt lashed out at the "opinion centers, Wall Street and editorial boards" and exhorted Democrats not to "play the Establishment game on foreign trade." Campaigning as an "anti-Establishment" candidate is an odd turnabout for the Missouri Congressman, who built his reputation as a Washington insider. But in a flaccid field, it seems to be working.

Both Babbitt and Gephardt have to take daring gambles, since their underfunded and overextended campaigns simply cannot afford weak third- or fourth-place finishes. How they must envy Dukakis, who has raised $11 million and will go on to New Hampshire with a home-field advantage. Simon, who has demonstrated surprising staying power, is confronted with the same question as Dole: If not Iowa, where? Conversely, a Simon victory could confound the race. As University of New Hampshire Political Scientist David Moore argues, "The momentum associated with the Iowa results could very well mean victory for Simon and Dole in New Hampshire if they win in Iowa."

What about Hart, that simultaneously brash and spectral presence who seems to symbolize the Democratic doldrums? His long-awaited first joint appearance with his Democratic rivals came last Friday night at a debate sponsored by the Des Moines Register. But instead of fireworks, there was only fizzle. Moderator James Gannon opened with the predictable adultery question, and Hart rattled off his polished yet somewhat jarring apologia: "We have never expected perfection from our leaders, and I don't think we should begin now." He added, "I'm a sinner, but my religion tells me that all of us are sinners." His rivals never mentioned Hart's character or morals. Two hours was all it took for Hart, who seemed wan and out of practice, to take on the earnest aspect of just another Democrat debating issues.

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