With Minds of Their Own

(2 of 2)
The Reagan connection, however, can have other ripples. Among Republican voters across the nation, Bush wins support from 49%, an increase of 9 points since TIME's December poll, while Dole rises 4 points, to 24%. Bush appears to have benefited from the Reagan-Gorbachev summit and the arms-control treaty. Dole quickly dropped his oft-stated qualms about the nuclear accord, at least partly because of pressure from his Iowa supporters.

Polls for months have indicated that Bush and Dole have the Republican race to themselves, but the TIME survey shows that voter sentiment is hardly set in concrete. When asked if they felt certain that they would stick with their present first choice, just 29% of Republican voters nationwide said yes. Among ( Iowans, the figure was 34%. With two-thirds of Iowa Republicans harboring some doubt, the campaign's final three weeks should be as suspenseful as usual.

The Democratic contest is more volatile, and not merely because 69% nationally feel they might change choices. Gary Hart's lead is too puny to make him a strong front runner, given his liabilities. Both nationally and in Iowa, 40% of Democratic voters say they have a "generally unfavorable" impression of Hart. A negative rating that high is crippling. Jesse Jackson, who also has large negatives (41% nationally, 37% in Iowa), found that out last month when Hart's return to the contest dumped him from first place. In this fast-forward atmosphere, Paul Simon is prospering, at least for the moment, while Michael Dukakis is losing traction. Nationally, Simon rose from fourth place in December (7%) to third place this month (13%), changing places with Dukakis (from 14% down to 11%).

Those changes are marginal, but in Iowa, Simon seems now to have a chance to move ahead. Among Democrats who say they will attend caucuses, he is second. However, when the sample is narrowed further to 213 Democrats who have attended a caucus in the past, Simon rises to the top. He is the favorite of 26% in this group, with Hart second (18%), Dukakis third (17%) and Richard Gephardt fourth (14%). So the Democrats, even more than the Republicans, will be puzzling the question of which partisans in this independent-minded state might actually turn out on caucus night to start their favorite on the road to the White House.

FOOTNOTE: *Taken by telephone Jan. 3-7. Nationwide, 1,804 adults were interviewed, including 571 likely Democratic voters and 424 likely Republican voters. A separate Iowa survey of 1,783 adults included 497 likely Democratic caucus participants and 394 likely Republican attendees. All findings were based on likely voters and likely caucus participants. Potential sampling errors are shown in charts.

CHART: TEXT NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: NO CREDIT

CAPTION: DEMOCRATS

DESCRIPTION: Strength of Democratic candidates among United States voters and Iowa voters.

CHART: TEXT NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: NO CREDIT

CAPTION: REPUBLICANS

DESCRIPTION: Strength of Republican candidates among United States voters and Iowa voters.

1. Why McCain Picked Palin
2. The Palin Pick: Bold or Disastrous?
3. McCain's Surprise Pick: Sarah Palin
4. Klein: Obama's Speech 'Very Tough'
5. McCain's Prickly TIME Interview
6. GM Recalling 944,000 Vehicles
7. Will Women Vote for Palin?
8. The Web's Word: Obama Is Not the Antichrist
9. Narrowing World Health Disparities
10. Russia 'to Absorb' South Ossetia