Central America Contra Countdown

Suddenly, the Sandinistas were on the offensive, lobbing peace grenades in the general direction of Washington. A Nicaraguan government delegation showed up in Costa Rica a full week ahead of schedule for face-to-face talks with the U.S.-backed contras. When the rebel leaders dismissed the offer as a publicity stunt and refused to begin talks prematurely, the Sandinistas hurled another surprise. They called for an international commission to monitor Nicaragua's compliance with a Central American peace plan. The panel would include not only representatives from the Organization of American States, Socialist International and the United Nations but also members of the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties.

But the Reagan Administration was determined not to be outflanked yet again by the Sandinistas on the battlefield of public opinion. In a White House speech to supporters last week, Ronald Reagan sounded a familiar theme, arguing that continued contra pressure is needed to ensure that the Sandinistas keep their word. "We must make sure that each time the Sandinistas walk through a new door toward democracy, we close it behind them -- and keep it closed," Reagan declared. "Only the freedom fighters can do that." Despite recent Nicaraguan concessions, including a bow to Washington's long sought demand that the Sandinistas talk directly to the contras, Reagan charged that the Sandinistas had not made "good faith efforts" to achieve peace.

The intense maneuvering in Washington and Managua could mean just one thing: another congressional vote on contra aid was at hand. But this vote, scheduled for next week, promises to be different. Seven years after first requesting money for the rebels and making the contras a cornerstone of his foreign policy, Reagan may be facing his final showdown over the fate of those he once likened to the Founding Fathers. Administration officials maintain that there are only enough military supplies in the pipeline to sustain the rebels through February. If the vote is no, Reagan will not be able to provide new funds until October, dangerously close to the end of his term, when his influence will be minimal. "If Congress votes down aid this time," Reagan warned last week, "the decision may well be irrevocable." If the vote is yes, it may kill the Central American peace plan that has won a Nobel Prize for Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez but that is quickly running out of deadlines. Says Republican Representative Henry Hyde of Illinois: "It's going to be a very emotional, very bloody debate."

At the heart of that debate is the question of whether the Sandinistas can be trusted. A skeptical White House dismisses Sandinista concessions as cosmetic and insincere. "Each step they have taken, each reluctant reform, is still easily undone," Reagan insisted. Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut challenged that view. "Every time the Sandinistas make a concession, the White House sees it as a major setback," he charged last week. White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater delivered a sharp rebuttal. "The Democrats, Chris Dodd and others, they want a surrender, and they think surrender is the best way to achieve peace. We disagree."