Again The Man to Beat

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Part of the reason is Pat Robertson. His fifth-place New Hampshire finish (9% of the vote) did not shake his faith. After all, New England hasn't been susceptible to the charms of evangelical leaders since the days of the Second Great Awakening in the early 19th century. He pronounced the South his backyard, and is likely to prove it so. By coming in third with 13%, New York Congressman Jack Kemp kept alive his financially strapped candidacy and his hopes of emerging from Robertson's shadow as the electable conservative challenger. After his fourth-place showing, former Delaware Governor Pete du Pont, an inconsequential player from the start of the race, joined Al Haig on the sidelines. So for the next three weeks at least, four serious candidates will be splitting up the vote.

Bush's strength in the South is supplemented by impeccable organizations throughout the region, a burgeoning war chest and the support of Governors in South Carolina, Texas, Florida and Oklahoma. As he did in New Hampshire, Bush can hype his loyalty to the President without worrying about an Iowa-style, anti-Reagan populist backlash. In a TIME poll taken last Wednesday and Thursday, Bush beat Dole 53% to 23% in the South.

But Robertson's no-longer-so-invisible army has been hard at work phoning voters and mailing thousands of Robertson's What I Will Do as President audiocassettes. Given that 44% of Americans called themselves evangelical or Fundamentalist Christians in TIME's survey, those tapes may be heard by very sympathetic ears. Robertson feels that victory in the South will prove that he is a legitimate candidate. "I want to make it clear that I am running for the presidency," said he. "Coming in second or third is nice up to a point. But somewhere down the line, it's necessary to have a clear win."

The former televangelist is relying on support from conservative Democrats, who will be allowed to cross over and vote in many of the South's G.O.P. contests, including those in Texas, Georgia and Virginia. In Louisiana, Kentucky and North Carolina, where cross-over voting is not permitted in the Super Tuesday primaries, Robertson soldiers have for months been organizing drives to reregister sympathetic Democrats as Republicans. Everett Zeagler, registrar of voters in Ouachita Parish in northern Louisiana, processed * hundreds of reregistrations daily before the Feb. 12 deadline, many on forms prepared by the Robertson campaign. "We've never seen anything anywhere near this in 20 years," said Zeagler.

"I am throwing down the gauntlet to George Bush in South Carolina," said Robertson, referring to the primary that takes place three days before Super Tuesday. "If I lose this one, I'm in trouble." It will be a direct Bush- Robertson showdown, with Dole staying at a pretty safe distance. Atwater, who hails from the state and cut his teeth managing campaigns there, has rounded up the entire political establishment for the Vice President. "If we don't win South Carolina," Atwater said in November, "we might as well pack our bags." A rattled Atwater was less adamant after Robertson's second-place finish in Iowa. "They'd love to ambush me and Bush in South Carolina," he fretted.