Again The Man to Beat

(3 of 5)

Dole's Southern strategy seems practically nonexistent, his organization scattershot. "We're only able to fight one battle at a time," says a Dole ally. "We're not ready to fight on several fronts at once, and we're not ready for Super Tuesday." Moreover, the Senator has failed to cultivate the political movers and shakers who control the G.O.P.'s Southern establishment. Between Bush's superior organization and Robertson's appeal to a small but fervent cadre of supporters, Super Tuesday could prove disastrous for Dole.

One hope for the Kansan may be that Robertson does so well in the South that he also damages Bush. Both Dole and Robertson pulled out of last Friday's Republican debate in Dallas, claiming that their campaigns had received only 60 tickets each for the event and the vast majority of the 2,600 available seats went to Bush supporters. While Dole and Robertson were staying in the same New Hampshire hotel last week, they met to discuss boycotting the debate. The Senator, however, denied persistent rumors that he and Robertson had talked about dividing their resources throughout the South in an effort to conquer Bush. "We don't need to make a deal," sniffed Dole's Florida coordinator, Rocky Pennington.

Dole should poll well in this week's South Dakota primary and Minnesota caucuses if his Midwestern "one of us" theme plays as well as it did in Iowa. But last week Bush halted his efforts in the South Dakota contest, making any Dole victory there somewhat hollow. The caucus format in Minnesota favors the highly motivated, so the Robertson forces may make a strong showing there.

As Dole toured the South late last week, he seemed depressed and distracted. His press entourage had dwindled. Rally crowds were thin. In a Florida address, the ordinarily aggressive Senator was on the defensive. "Whatever you see on TV ads, Bob Dole is not going to raise taxes," he said, once again employing the third-person syntax that is beginning to sound like self-parody. "Bob Dole has never raised taxes."

It was a sudden, startling turnaround for a candidate who had so recently been on top of the world. Basking in the afterglow of his Iowa triumph, Dole poured on the charm in New Hampshire. As his standings in the polls rose, so did the candidate's spirits. Monday morning he bragged about having slept in, and predicted victory. That night he donned a grandfatherly sweater vest and joined Campaign Manager Bill Brock and two TIME reporters having dinner at his hotel. "Maybe Bush's huge organization is a myth," he gloated. He began musing about new supporters. "When are we going to get Uncle Strom on board?" he inquired playfully, referring to South Carolina's right-wing Senator Thurmond. "My candidate has front runner-itis," joked Brock. "He keeps wanting more endorsements."

Dole's mood darkened as soon as the New Hampshire outcome became clear. Just as victory had seemed to liberate him, defeat sent him reverting to his old caustic persona. During a television hookup with Bush Tuesday night, Dole was asked by NBC's Tom Brokaw whether he had anything to say to the Vice President. "Yeah," Dole snarled as he glowered into the camera. "Stop lying about my record."