Again The Man to Beat

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Bush's surge was so sudden that many pollsters missed the trend. Most tracking polls question a relatively small number of voters, usually fewer than 400, in each party every night. The results are then averaged over several days. The weekend before the primary, most tracking polls showed the race dead even. Some, most notably Gallup, gave Dole the lead by as much as 8 points. By Monday most polls detected that Bush was picking up momentum. Dole's pollster, Richard Wirthlin, found Bush gaining ground but on the basis of his weekend data still insisted the Senator would triumph. The volatility of the poll data could be a troubling sign for both candidates. It is indicative of soft, unreliable support. Bush's ultimate 10-point victory shows that a good number of voters may have changed their minds just hours before the primary.

The Vice President's men were quick to cluck over the Bush victory -- and to turn up the heat in an effort to rattle their opponent further. "Dole loves to dish it out," said Atwater, "but if something happens to him, he gets this spoilsport attitude." Appearing on television's MacNeil-Lehrer Report, Atwater bragged about the Bush-Sununu grass-roots strategy and said, "If Senator Dole would try to do the same thing, instead of all this bellyaching, he's probably going to do a lot better." Taking the bait, Bill Brock later growled, "Lee Atwater ought to grow up."

New Hampshire's bottom line: George Bush is again the man to beat for the Republican presidential nomination. Never mind the whiny voice, the uninspiring message, the utter lack of charisma. New Hampshire demonstrated the power of an experienced, thorough campaign organization, the effectiveness of hard-hitting advertising and the priceless importance of being Ronald Reagan's heir presumptive in the Republican Party. Moreover, Bush has shown that he will not easily fold. For all the cliches about wimpiness, the Vice President does possess the proverbial fire in the belly. "If we learned anything," said Dole Consultant David Keene, "it's that we're going to have to knock him down. He won't fall down by himself."