Environment: Drought Stalks the Mighty Nile

Maher Abaza, Egypt's Minister of Energy, sits in semidarkness in his cavernous Cairo office, the only light a small desk lamp and neon bulbs overhead. "This is a very hard year for our country's power system," he explains. "I have told the Egyptian people clearly -- we do not have enough." At the Aswan High Dam, Supervisor Hamdi el Shaffei observes, "Water is our fuel. Not a drop is wasted." Under his feet, huge turbines hum as thousands of gallons of precious Nile River water gush past each second, heading north on the last leg of a 4,150-mile journey through Africa.

Living virtually without rain in a country that is 97% desert, Egyptians depend on the world's longest river for irrigation, electric power, drinking water and transportation. Now, after a decade of drought that has left parts of central Africa on the brink of starvation, the Nile is running perilously low. For the first time since the Aswan High Dam was finished in 1970, serious shortages of water and hydroelectric power threaten Egypt.

By midsummer, government officials predict, the water level in the reservoir above Aswan, known as Lake Nasser, will drop to 492 ft., from 574 ft. a decade ago, slashing power output by 55% and causing isolated power shortages. If the level dips much below that, Aswan's powerful turbines, which provide 25% of Egypt's electricity, must be shut down, crippling industrial development and hampering efforts to reclaim desert land for cultivation.

The impending crisis was not officially acknowledged until last December, after a government-commissioned study by British consultants warning of dire water and power shortages was leaked to the press. The sense of urgency increased last month when officials decided to save water by adding an extra week to the dam's annual 21-day maintenance period, when water flow is sharply reduced. The results downstream were dramatic: parts of the Nile's muddy bottom in Cairo were exposed for the first time, and tourist boats cruising between Aswan and Luxor suddenly confronted midstream sandbars, making passage impossible.

Egypt's continuing dependence on the Nile reflects growing industrialization, as well as profligate habits of consumption. Since 1981, use of electricity has soared from 18 billion to 45 billion kw-h. To curb demand, the government in the past five years has quadrupled the price of electricity for heavy users, although electricity for the poor is still subsidized. "We cannot pressure the poor," says Energy Minister Abaza with a shrug.

In recent months the Egyptian government has quietly begun instituting measures to save water. Since October, outflow from the Aswan dam has been reduced by more than 10%; irrigation water that once flooded more than 250,000 acres of rice fields, or 25% of Egypt's total production, has been cut off. To cope with the anticipated decrease in hydroelectricity, the government plans to add four new gas- and oil-fired electric generating plants to Egypt's overtaxed power system in the next year. Cost: $300 million.