There Is No Plan B

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In the twilight, it was difficult to know who was out there. But the 100 U.S. Marines guarding a military fuel depot near Howard Air Force Base in southern Panama were certain that the uniformed figures moving in the distance were up to no good. Sure enough, as darkness settled, shots rang out. The American sentries responded, firing into the dense jungle that surrounds the 800-acre Arraijan Tank Farm. For two hours, the Marines fired small arms and mortars. Miraculously, no one was hurt; the previous night, a smaller firefight had resulted in the accidental fatal shooting of a Marine. Could the U.S. troops have once again mistaken their fellow countrymen for hostile Panamanians? "Unauthorized personnel," insisted the U.S. Southern Command. "Shadows," countered the Panama Defense Forces.

The two nights of phantom violence dramatized the dilemma that confounds the Reagan Administration in Panama and elsewhere in Central America: Is the U.S. pursuing a logical course to achieve concrete results, or is it firing wildly at uncertain targets? Drug trafficking has replaced Communism as the Administration's overriding policy concern, compounding earlier American inconsistency on the Nicaraguan contras. In switching targets, the U.S. has employed heavy-handed tactics that have failed to anticipate consequences. As a result, Washington has angered some of its closest regional allies and unleashed strong anti-American sentiments. "Things are a mess now," concedes a State Department official. "We're just reacting to events."

Nearly three months have passed since drug indictments were brought against General Manuel Antonio Noriega in Florida and the Administration signaled its determination to unseat the strongman. Noriega remains firmly in control, despite opposition strikes, U.S. economic sanctions, and the dispatch of 1,300 additional U.S. troops to Panama. The economic noose intended to yank Noriega from power is instead choking Panama's banking, construction, retail and tourism industries. Says a young businessman in Panama City: "Noriega has made fools of the Americans, and we are the ones who have suffered."

As the situation worsens, the perception is growing in Panama that the U.S. joined battle with Noriega armed only with a firm conviction that the general would slink away on cue. At a secret meeting, Panamanian opposition leaders asked U.S. embassy officers to spell out their plans for dealing with Noriega. A U.S. official reiterated Washington's familiar posture: Noriega must leave Panama, with no guarantees that he will not be extradited to the U.S. from a third country. "Do you mean to tell us that the U.S. set off on this venture without considering the possibility that it wouldn't work right away?" demanded a Panamanian. "Are you saying there is no Plan B?" An uneasy silence followed.