Marathon Man

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For now at least, black Democrats continue to demonstrate their customary party loyalty. When blacks supporting Jackson are asked if they would vote for another Democratic candidate in the fall, 89% say yes. More white Democrats now supporting Dukakis would defect if he lost the nomination; just 66% say they would be content with another candidate. However, blacks may yet become so angered or frustrated by what happens to Jackson that they lose interest. Many party leaders fear what a black adviser to Dukakis calls a "real danger of letdown" -- a retreat to the sidelines -- because Jackson's success has raised expectations so high. Eddie Williams, president of the Joint Center for Political Studies, a black think tank, argues that blacks are so eager to put a Democrat in the White House that they will turn out in large numbers "provided that Jesse Jackson is not beat up or treated unfairly." How to define that treatment? "It will be defined," says Williams, "by how Jackson reacts to whatever occurs."

Thus even if Dukakis can assemble a majority of convention delegates on his own, Jackson will continue to exercise tremendous power. How Dukakis deals with that power will be critical. On the personal level, their dealings have advanced from politely cool to vaguely friendly. Jackson customarily greets his adversary with a breezy "Hey, Duke." Dukakis, after some prodding, has recently taken to placing small-talk phone calls to Jackson. "We're going to continue to build what I hope will be a good relationship," Dukakis said. "We are united in the feeling that the stakes are very high in this election. We both want a new kind of leadership in the White House."

Jackson last week expressed his "sincere congratulations and respectful appreciation" to Dukakis for running a high-road campaign. Dukakis lately has been almost flowery in public allusions to his rival. Yet the prospect of genuine comradeship between these diametrically opposed personalities seems farfetched. The two men are poles apart in their approaches to just about - everything.

Jackson likes to talk in rhyme and think in metaphor; Dukakis is as poetic as a slide rule. Jackson, the college quarterback, is a scrambler, an improviser, a mixer; Dukakis, the college runner, is essentially a loner who learned the Greek monos mou (by myself) as his first words. Jackson sweats, gestures, emotes, preaches when giving a speech. Dukakis uses a terminal monotone and metronomic motions. Where Dukakis is cerebral and calculating, Jackson is visceral and physical. During a joint appearance in New York, as Jackson succeeded Dukakis at the lectern, the Governor shook hands as they passed. That was not enough for Jackson. Using his bulk, he maneuvered the diminutive Dukakis back to the stage for a thumbs-up photo.

But a strong common bond is love of and skill in negotiating. A species of political bargaining has already begun, tentatively, in public. Some of this is thematic: Dukakis, for instance, has begun to match Jackson's emphasis on combatting the drug menace. Last week, with a large publicity flourish, Dukakis signed a bill establishing the first statewide health insurance plan. The fact that Jackson also emphasizes health care gives them another patch of common ground, although they have differing views on how to pay for it.