Marathon Man

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And then will come one of the most critical moments in the 1988 campaign. Jackson could insist that being the first black on a national ticket is a historic milestone, one that he and his supporters have earned; it would be a bold stroke against the nation's greatest sin, one that could actually sweep the Democrats to victory by arousing the passions of social justice. Or he could say no, that he has never had the least desire to be Vice President and he is smart enough to realize that such a ticket would probably lose and thus cripple both his personal ambitions and his cause.

If Jackson says no, Dukakis can afford to let down his reserve and hug Jackson tightly. Jackson would immediately become a great party statesman, with either a formal or an informal role, tapped and consulted on all major issues. If Jackson says yes, that he feels the Veep spot is his by right, a long and delicate dance will ensue. Dukakis will have to decide whether putting Jackson on the ticket would be more harmful than trying to exclude him, and if so, whether he has the convention votes to win such a fight.

The further Dukakis goes in mollifying Jackson, the greater the danger of alienating moderates and conservatives in the party, particularly in the South. Though these factions again proved feckless in the nomination game -- unable even to field an effective candidate, let alone win any primary outside the South -- they are still essential in amassing an electoral-vote majority in November.

Southern white leaders are already sounding alarms about any leftward tilt. Some pols running this year are maneuvering to put distance between themselves and the national ticket in order to avoid a liberal taint. Jon Mills, speaker of the Florida state assembly, warns that Dukakis "has to show us that he isn't just another northeastern liberal. He's going to have to give us some material to work with." Texas Democratic Chairman Bob Slagle, a Gore supporter, fears that Jackson will nail even more left-wing planks into the platform than were there in 1984. "If Dukakis gets pictured as soft on defense," says Slagle, "he's in a ton of trouble down here." Slagle's solution: lure Georgia Senator Sam Nunn onto the ticket by offering to make him Secretary of Defense as well as Vice President. That unorthodox approach would compensate for Dukakis' lack of expertise in national security affairs, but it would be a confession of weakness on his part. A choice for running mate is supposed to welcome the invitation without imposing large conditions.

While Nunn would be ideal for placating Tory Democrats, his conservative voting record would hardly delight Jackson or other liberals. So the hot name on the Veep gossip circuit last week was that of Senator Bob Graham, former Governor of Florida and a Dukakis supporter known to be more interested in the assignment than Nunn is. An affable, energetic campaigner highly popular at home, Graham could at least reel in the South's second largest state, one that is essential to building an electoral-vote majority. Other prospects are slipping into speculation as well.