The Grail of the Golden State

The setting was a San Francisco TV studio, and the script called for a debate between Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson. But when it was Dukakis' turn for a 60-sec. summary, his first words were "this fall." He all but ignored his Democratic rival, barely mentioned next week's California primary and instead concentrated his fire on George Bush. "Some people want to build missiles," Dukakis declared. "I want to help build young minds." From the U.S. Military Academy on the opposite coast, Bush belabored the Democrats' "liberal elite" for failing to understand that "peace flows from strength." Welcome to the general-election campaign, which is well under way even as the nominating season sputters to a suspense-free finale.

California was supposed to be different in 1988. Earlier contests were going to be so inconclusive that Golden State voters, whose primaries always come late in the season, would have unusual influence in choosing both nominees. Like many an '88 scenario, that forecast foundered on the reefs of reality. Californians, along with voters in New Jersey, New Mexico and Montana, will anoint rather than select the nominees next week.

But Bush and Dukakis are getting more on the West Coast than a tan. The nation's most populous state, California offers the single largest prize in November: 47 electoral votes. Raising the stakes further is the strong sense that the state could go either way this year, perhaps serving as the cornerstone of a Democratic victory in a close race. "It's winnable," says Jack Corrigan, a Dukakis strategist. "It's target No. 1." Lee Atwater, Bush's campaign manager, agrees: "It's up for grabs." The Bush team members are starting to argue that the Vice President can win without California, a sure indication of their fears.

Recent polls confirm a trend that first emerged in a TIME survey five weeks ago: nationally, Dukakis now leads Bush by 11 to 13 points. The San Francisco- based Field Institute last week gave the Massachusetts Governor a virtually identical 13-point margin in California. Even if that gap shrinks, it represents a remarkable opportunity for Dukakis in a state that Republicans have carried in all but one presidential election since 1952 (the exception was Lyndon Johnson in 1964).

Bush's problem in California is like his problem nationwide: he has moved only inches out of Ronald Reagan's shadow. Even when he detached himself from the White House's feckless policy of trying to cajole Manuel Noriega out of Panama two weeks ago, the Vice President was hesitant and late. Meanwhile, he continues to be bruised by his association with unpopular Administration actions like last week's veto of the trade bill, which contains a provision requiring employers to give 60 days' notice before laying off workers.