The Gulf Iran on the Defensive

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How battered is Iran? The question is being asked more and more frequently these days, not only in Arab chanceries but also in Washington and the capitals of Western Europe, as Tehran attempts to cope with a series of unexpected setbacks. After nearly eight years of war with Iraq, Iran suddenly finds itself on the defensive, forced to regroup and rebuild after decisive defeats at the hands of the Iraqi army. The battlefield losses in turn have increased tensions between radical and moderate factions among the ruling mullahs and led the Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini to bestow his title of commander in chief to Hashemi Rafsanjani, the powerful Speaker of Parliament.

On the diplomatic front, Iran is as isolated as ever, especially from its Arab neighbors. At last week's Arab summit in Algiers, the leaders declared that the 21-member Arab League was "in total solidarity with Iraq and its defense of its national territories." Alone among the Arabs, Syria, which supports Iran, raised mild objections to the statement.

Hardly anyone, within the region or without, believes the Khomeini regime is about to dissolve, although once again rumors are flying that the Iranian leader is seriously ill. Certainly his rhetoric remains harsh and unyielding. "The fate of the war will be decided on the war fronts, not through negotiations," Khomeini, 87, declared in a speech read by his son Ahmed at the opening of Iran's newly elected Parliament two weeks ago. "Victory will be ours."

But will it? Among military and political analysts in the West, hope is growing that at long last the war in the gulf may be winding down to a defensive stalemate. For the first time since the war began, the military initiative in the conflict, which has caused an estimated million casualties on both sides, has decisively turned in favor of Iraq. Morale among Iran's soldiers is said to be low. "The Iranians have suffered a tremendous psychological blow," says former Gulf Diplomat James Placke. "It has left them in political disarray."

Cracks in Tehran's confidence became visible late last February, after the Iranians revived the so-called war of the cities by firing two missiles into Baghdad, the capital, and Basra, the key port city in the south. The Iraqis reacted in kind. Rockets fell on Tehran, on the holy city of Qum and other Iranian towns, and sent civilians fleeing. Between Feb. 29 and April 19, when the missile war was halted, Iraq fired 160 Soviet-made Scud-B missiles, which had been modified to increase their range beyond the normal 175 miles. The bombs killed and wounded hundreds in Tehran and other cities.

At about the same time, Iran launched what at first appeared to be a successful offensive into northern Iraq. The push was stopped by a counterattack in which the Iraqis, according to the Iranians, used poison gas; hundreds of Iraq's own civilians perished in the city of Halabja. Iran Expert Shaul Bakhash of George Mason University says the combination of Iraqi missile and chemical attacks disheartened the Iranians. "It brought home to them for the first time that they were exposed and alone."