Iraq Sword of the Arabs

The Arabic word saddam means "one who confronts." From the start of the three-day Arab summit in Baghdad last week, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein lived up to his name. Playing shrewdly on the frustration of Arabs exasperated by the bloody stalemate with Israel, Saddam set the aggressive tone in his opening address: "We should state clearly that if Israel commits aggression and attacks, we will strike back with great force. If Israel uses weapons of total destruction against our nation, we will use whatever weapons of total destruction we have against it."

The fiery rhetoric of a madman? Or the calculated political message of an ambitious tyrant seeking to ensure his own coronation as master of the Arab universe? That is just what statesmen in the West and the Middle East are asking as Saddam accelerates his determined campaign for regional dominance. In recent months he has thrust himself into the world spotlight with a series of saber-rattling actions, statements and threats that have reinforced his reputation for ruthlessness and provoked disturbing questions about his ultimate designs. "He is playing on an old theme; call it constructive craziness," says Mark Heller of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "If you act like a loose cannon, people tend to treat you with kid gloves."

Certainly Saddam is not a man to trifle with or ignore. At home the hallmark of his rule is fear: fear of the secret police, of informers, of the midnight knock at the door that results in mysterious disappearances and often in executions. The penalty for openly speaking ill of him is death. According to Amnesty International, hangings occur on an average of ten to 20 times a month. Appeals for autonomy by rebellious Kurds have been answered with poison gas and forced relocation. Not even presumably loyal army officers are shielded from Saddam's wrath: many died in suspicious helicopter crashes during the gulf war.

Abroad, Saddam has embarked on a dangerous course to intimidate opponents and supporters alike. Last March an Iraq-bound shipment of devices, widely believed to be for use in triggering a nuclear explosion, was intercepted in London. The ensuing speculation about his militaristic intentions provoked Saddam to warn, "We will let our fire eat half of Israel if it tries to wage anything against Iraq." A week later British officials impounded another Iraqi shipment, this one containing what defense experts thought was the barrel of the world's largest cannon.

All this might not be so alarming were it not for Saddam's apparent determination to transform Iraq into a regional superpower with a nuclear capability. Baghdad's vast arsenal of sophisticated weaponry is at the disposal of a 1 million-strong battle-hardened military, by far the largest of any Arab state. Given Israel's formidable military strength, Saddam's buildup amounts to a Middle East version of mutual assured destruction, the same kind of nerve-racking standoff that governed East-West relations throughout the cold war.