The Gulf: Measuring The Embargo's Bite

) Iraqi television's ubiquitous stand-in for Saddam Hussein faced the camera with a doleful expression. "The children of Iraq," he claimed last week, "are dying because they are being deprived of their food and milk and medicine." With the U.N.-backed embargo only five weeks old, Baghdad's charge seemed extremely dubious. Diplomats in the Iraqi capital reported that despite lines at bakeries and preparations for rationing, no staples have disappeared from the shelves.

Precisely when the economic pressure will begin to hurt and whether it will force Saddam to pull out of Kuwait as the U.N. demands have become the biggest imponderables in the gulf confrontation. Iraq earns almost all its foreign exchange by selling oil abroad, and it imports three-quarters of its food and much of its manufactured goods. Thus economic sanctions are likely to hit Iraq hard, but only over six months to a year.

Analysts offer different estimates of how long food supplies might last, though most agree that no Iraqis will be malnourished for at least a year. Even then, food will not provide the strongest lever for pushing Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. Iraq had a bumper wheat harvest this year and is seasonally self-sufficient in many fruits and vegetables. Much more of the country can -- and no doubt will -- be used to grow food.

There is also a loophole in the Security Council resolution imposing the embargo. It provides that for humanitarian purposes, food and medical relief shipments to Iraq will be allowed. A Security Council advisory committee met last week to work out a definition of "humanitarian" but got nowhere. It is scheduled to meet again this week.

In fact, many nations would decide for themselves. Jordan even now says it will not interrupt delivery of food and medicine to Iraq or its import of Iraqi oil. China and Iran hint they are rethinking the question. Altogether, nine countries have indicated that they may seek exemptions from the embargo. From these early signals it is clear that starvation will not become a U.N. weapon. The U.S. does not want to starve Iraq either; its plan is to make Iraqis' diet so minimal that they will become resentful and discontented.

At the same time, Iraq's semideveloped economy is likely to grind on in straitened circumstances for many months. The need for imported clothing and household appliances is not pressing. As the shortage of spare parts becomes acute, water and power supplies will only gradually begin to decline. "There ^ is scope for flexibility on Iraq's part for making do in a self-contained economy," says Marshall Wiley, a former U.S. ambassador to Oman.

Nor is Saddam's biggest asset, his 1 million-man military, in danger of fading away. Iraq has stockpiled conventional weapons and spare parts and is continuing to assemble exotic ones -- including missiles and chemical warheads. "Iraq is reasonably well stocked with parts and ammunition, but only until a shooting war breaks out," says a White House official. "Then they're out of everything."