Poland's WOJCIECH JARUZELSKI: Unlikely Detonator Of Change

Q. What would have happened had you not declared martial law in December 1981?

A. The general situation, combined with the apprehension and concern voiced by our neighbors and a general network of pressure directed against us, probably would have led to the internationalization of our internal conflict. We were very close to a fraternal regional communist conflict and to the kind of situation that occurred in Hungary in 1956 ((when the Soviets intervened militarily to put down an uprising)).

Q. Would the Soviets have actually invaded had you not declared martial law?

A. You would have to ask the Soviets that question. I cannot say exactly how the Soviet leadership would have reacted. But in September 1981 we were told by the Soviets that the following year they would be able to supply us with ) only 4 million tons of crude oil, compared with the normal 13 million tons. We were also warned that there would be similar proportional reductions in supplies of other raw materials, including cotton. Other members of the bloc would have reacted in a similar fashion. In other words, a total economic blockade awaited us unless we resolved our internal problems.

Q. When the Soviets made this threat in September, did you ask the West if it would make good the shortfall in these deliveries?

A. No, but it would have been impossible on such a scale. It was a question not only of raw materials but of cooperation and markets. Our economy was based on specific trading patterns within Comecon. Hundreds of enterprises were working to produce goods for the Soviet economy, goods the West would not buy because of quality or other factors. We could not switch overnight, and we still cannot do it today. Imagine the scenario had the opposition ((Solidarity)) taken over in the autumn of 1981 and inherited such an economic situation on the eve of winter, when there were already serious shortages in the marketplace. It would have been a catastrophe and may have even made impossible all the changes that have taken place this past year.

Q. You have often said that throughout your life you frequently had to choose between two evils. Would you say that declaring martial law was the lesser of two evils?

A. Absolutely. I have thought and said so since the first moment. There is a saying by Tadeusz Kosciuszko ((the 18th century Polish military hero)) that one sometimes has to lose a lot in order to save everything.

Q. Polish historians of the future will, I suspect, judge you solely on this period of your career. Does that worry you?

A. I regret that I might be remembered solely as someone associated with martial law. While I understand the drama of that moment, I would like also to be remembered as the initiator of the round-table talks with Solidarity in 1989. This was a breakthrough, and it became an example for others. It is not that the man who declared martial law and the one who initiated the round- table talks were two totally different people. One might even say that had it not been for martial law, there could have been no round table.

Q. Could there have been serious talks with the opposition had Mikhail Gorbachev not been in power in the Soviet Union?