Iraq: With His Country in Ruins, How Long Can Saddam Hang On?

O Iraqis! Yes, you triumphed when you stood with all this vigor against the armies of 30 states! You triumphed while emphasizing your ability to face the showdown and confrontation! You have recorded for Arabs and Muslims bright pages of glory that will be remembered for generations!

-- Baghdad Radio, following the Feb. 28 cease-fire

That report was a blatant rewriting of history. Across Iraq, the shattered hulks of planes and tanks lie strewn across airfields and battlegrounds. Power stations, telephone and telegraph centers, oil refineries and factories have been reduced to smoldering ruins. Dozens of bombed bridges are slumped into the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers, as well as an unknown number of civilians, are dead. Many thousands more are either prisoners of the allied forces or straggling abjectly back to Iraq without their weapons. If this was victory, it is impossible to imagine what would constitute defeat.

Sooner or later -- and probably sooner -- Iraq's 19 million battered people will understand just how costly Saddam Hussein's miscalculation was. When they do, Saddam could face a fearful reckoning. The U.S. and its allies have made no secret of their desire that Saddam be overthrown by his own people. Most experts in Washington and other capitals say Saddam may be able to hang on, at least for a while, because he has so ruthlessly eliminated his internal rivals. But there was speculation that Saddam might flee. At week's end there were rumors that he might seek political asylum in Algeria, although officials there denied it.

Saddam's ouster or exile would end a bloody chapter in Iraqi history. But the one that follows could be just as sanguinary. In a country that has experienced five coups since 1958, Saddam's 12 years in power are a record. His Baath Party has imposed stability through control of the army and a network of secret police and informers that penetrates every niche of Iraqi society. If that is swept away, simmering tensions between the Shi'ite Muslims (55% of the population), Sunni Muslims (20%) and Kurds (25%) could conceivably erupt into a communal bloodbath, fragmenting the country into another Lebanon.

That may be one argument for accepting Saddam's continuation in power, provided he has been weakened to the point that he can no longer threaten neighboring countries. The gulf states have an interest in maintaining Baghdad's sovereignty: a fragmented Iraq could give a resurgent Iran the chance to dominate the region. For the allies, the issues of putting Saddam on trial for war crimes and of Iraqi payment of reparations to Kuwait still need to be settled. Although he remains a hero to many of his followers, Saddam has probably ceased playing an effective role in Arab politics. Even such supporters as Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization are distancing themselves from Saddam in defeat.

It is hard to see how such a Saddam could ever be an international threat again. Alive, paradoxically, he is less of a hero than dead. His army is broken, his country is a shambles, and he has virtually no links to the outside world. Although the U.N. is likely to lift the economic sanctions fairly soon, the arms embargo will probably last as long as Saddam is in power.