Refugees: A Kiss Before Dying?

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Who would ever have imagined that kiss? There on Iraqi TV was Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, whose people have been betrayed, gassed, shot and forced into exile by Saddam Hussein, reaching out to the tormentor himself. There was Saddam, who once said he would run a sword through the rebellious Talabani before permitting him to return to Iraq, pressing his lips against the cheek of the Kurdish representative. It was enough to make even the most cynical Middle East watcher blink hard and move closer to the set.

That widely publicized embrace in Baghdad last week symbolized the improbable news that after battling each other for the past two months, the Kurdish leadership and the Iraqi authorities were trying to make peace. After five days of talks, the two sides tentatively agreed that in exchange for the Kurds' ending their uprising, Baghdad would give the minority community some form of autonomy in northern Iraq, where the Kurds predominate. But details of the arrangement remained to be settled, and the deal could very well fall apart. Even if an armistice does hold for a time, no seasoned analyst expects it to bring lasting peace to the Kurds. "Saddam is buying time," says a high-ranking Turkish diplomat. "He will take his revenge when he can afford to."

Such was the skepticism surrounding the wispy accord that the U.S. and its allies did not so much as pause in their efforts to establish a safe haven for the Kurds in northern Iraq. Said a U.S. official about the agreement: "We can't welcome it. We can't pooh-pooh it. So we're extremely neutral." However, if the detente reached in Baghdad sticks, it may yet serve the allies' interests. If a final pact prompts the displaced Kurds to return to their homes, it would relieve the allies of the enormous difficulties they face in trying to aid the refugees without becoming entangled with Baghdad.

The possible pitfalls of the allied relief operation were underscored last week when hundreds of armed Iraqis appeared in the town of Zakhu, near the tent cities the allies are building for the Kurds. The gunmen were defying U.S. military orders that all Iraqi security forces withdraw to a line 25 miles to the south. Though they wore police uniforms, the men, plainly soldiers, made a joke of their disguise, shouting to reporters, "Police, police!" and laughing.

Saddam, said a senior British diplomat, was "trying to twitch a muscle," and it made the allies nervous. "Just one shot by an Iraqi soldier could trigger a battle," worried another London official. At the same time, the presence of the armed men was dissuading the fearful Kurds from moving into the new sanctuaries. "Our problem is not tents," said Rajab, a Kurdish guerrilla commander. "Our problem is security."