Middle East: Let the Game Begin

By Washington's reckoning, the reply card was long overdue. But finally last week the Palestinians put their R.S.V.P. in writing. Yes, they would attend the Middle East peace conference organized by U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, the first full-scale meeting between Israel and the Arabs in almost two decades. That cleared the way for a joint U.S.-Soviet announcement that Presidents Bush and Gorbachev would both attend the opening of the much anticipated parley next week in Madrid. They had already sent out formal invitations to the parties, who had all, more or less, said yes. Declared a plainly pleased Baker: "This is an important day."

Officials at the White House were even more upbeat. George Bush plans to attend the conference for one day, give an opening speech, then depart on other business -- political business in Houston, where he will kick off his re-election campaign. But with the flying trip to Madrid, he can be seen as a catalyst for the process if negotiations succeed or, if they fail, as a man who gave peace his best shot. "This is a win-win situation," says a senior official.

Baker is unlikely to stick with the talks for more than a few days. Once the dramatic photo ops are over, the substantive negotiations are likely to be long, difficult and unpredictable. The negotiators will be hampered by a lack of trust and deeply tangled issues. The talks could become a great diplomatic marathon, stretching like the SALT and START negotiations, into years and decades. That may even be the optimistic view. Pessimists suggest that, since the subject is the Middle East, the whole conference could easily blow up.

Invitations had hardly gone out before the conference planners were blindsided by an electrifying accusation of Israeli bad faith. In a book published this week (see following story), investigative reporter Seymour Hersh says he was told that Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir shared U.S. nuclear secrets with the Soviet Union. According to two sources, Hersh writes, Shamir supplied Moscow with information on the targeting of American strategic missiles, which he received from Israel's spy in Washington, Jonathan Pollard.

A farfetched charge like that is almost impossible to verify. If it were true, very few officials in any government would know it, and most of those who did would consider it their duty to cover up, obfuscate and, if necessary, lie. Nevertheless, whether the tale is true or not, many people might choose to believe it. The charges and countercharges to follow could rain on the Madrid conference.

There were other things to straighten out as well. The Palestinians handed Baker a tentative list of their delegates, who will attend the conference jointly with representatives from Jordan. In a bow to Palestinian sensitivity about the implicit Israeli veto over their delegation, Baker refused to share the list with Shamir -- or so he said. But he assured the Israelis that the roster contained no names they would object to. Said an uncharacteristically trustful Shamir: "Jim Baker's word is good enough for me." The Prime Minister said it was up to his full Cabinet to decide finally whether Israel would attend the talks. But at the same time, the Soviet Union announced that it was formally restoring diplomatic ties with Israel, suspended since the 1967 war. That was a telling sign that Shamir had made it clear Israel would go.