Middle East: Let the Game Begin

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The Palestinians' participation had been even more iffy. In the end it was their relative weakness that brought them around. For a time it had looked possible, even probable, that Arab-Israeli talks would take place without them. That raised the specter of the other Arab parties, particularly Syria, striking a separate peace with Jerusalem, as Egypt did in 1979. "That would seal the fate of the Palestinians," said Said Zeedani, director of the West Bank human-rights group al-Haq.

Instead, the Palestinians will finally sit down face-to-face with the Israelis to bargain for a measure of self-rule. In exchange, Jerusalem hopes to settle its 43-year-old conflict with an Arab world that has refused to grant it a permanent place in the region. In theory, they will negotiate on the basis of the formula first spelled out in U.N. Resolution 242: land for peace. But the Shamir government has made it clear that it has no intention of withdrawing from any of the disputed territory it claims as Eretz Yisrael.

Nevertheless, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon have also agreed to engage in this stage of bilateral talks with the Israelis, which will start no more than four days after the formal opening session. Ten days later, a third phase of negotiation will begin. The Gulf Cooperation Council, representing states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, is expected to join in organizing broader regional talks to resolve questions like water rights, disarmament and protection of the environment. Only Syria has refused to participate at the regional level.

The Palestinians have much to gain from this historic negotiation. Their aims are more realistic than ever before: gone is the dream of regaining all of mandatory Palestine and of establishing a state overnight. The Palestinians know they must pursue their aspiration of a smaller homeland step-by-step through negotiations. Still, they seem ill-prepared, both technically and psychologically, for the laborious horse-trading needed to profit from this opportunity.

The Palestinians, unlike the other parties to the talks, lack the resources of a foreign ministry and an intelligence service, essential in devising negotiating positions and in anticipating the reactions and initiatives of other parties. Palestinian activists say a number of committees have been formed to begin collecting material and forming ideas. Still, concedes Ziad Abu Zayyad, editor of the Palestinian newspaper Gesher and a possible conference delegate, "we are not prepared enough."

Nor is Washington much further along. The thesis underlying Baker's dogged efforts in the region was that convening the conference in itself would alter the parties' attitudes about what they might be able to accomplish. The small circle of Baker aides involved in the conference has been too occupied getting the parties to the table to plan what happens once they arrive. There is also the question of U.S. representation: with Bush and Baker leaving town so quickly, who will take over as the principal American delegate, to move along the complex array of bilateral and multilateral talks? One name being mentioned is Richard Armitage, who recently served as chief negotiator on the Philippine bases, but Washington has not decided yet.