How to Follow the Talks

ROAD TO ????

Madrid was the easy part. Delegates had only to stake out a position, not cede an inch of ground. The course toward peace is pockmarked with sandpits, potholes and booby traps. If you plan to stay tuned, be ready for a long, long siege, marked by proclamations of self-sacrifice and ritualistic outbursts of indignation. And be wary of the press leaks of success/failure that are sure to follow. Any real bargaining will be behind closed doors, and the only reliable evidence of progress will be public statements of mutual commitment.

PALESTINIANS: This group, more a coalition than a team, calls Jerusalemite Faisal al-Husseini the "head of the delegation," though Dr. Haidar Abdul- Shafi is the group's formal leader. And behind them still is P.L.O. Chairman Yasser Arafat.

SYRIA: The toughest guys at the talks. Although English-speaking Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa is the front man, make no mistake: President Hafez Assad will be calling the shots -- and the other Arabs will listen.

ISRAEL: Yitzhak ("Not One Inch") Shamir is the hard-line leader of a solidly hard-line team. But Deputy Foreign Minister Benjamin ("Nightline") Netanyahu, who speaks perfect American, will put the velvet spin on Israel's positions.

U.S.: President Bush insists that he will be a "catalyst," not an imposer of solutions. But if he and James Baker do not provide concrete proposals that enable the parties to make incremental concessions, talks will stall -- and they may feel some heat for the failure.

PARTY LINES

In Madrid the delegates presented very tough -- and very familiar -- opening positions:

Palestinians: Want an independent state, in confederation with Jordan, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But coming into the conference, they have dropped their long-standing refusal to accept self-rule over daily affairs in the West Bank and Gaza as a first step. As an immediate sign of good faith, they want a freeze on Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. They have vowed to stick out the talks.

Syria: The most truculent -- wants Israel to cede "every inch of Arab land occupied by the Israelis by war and force," particularly the Golan Heights, in return for a state of nonbelligerency. Damascus refuses to participate in regional talks until Israel demonstrates a willingness to return occupied territory. Assad has vowed to strike no separate deals with Israel, and is exhorting other Arab delegations to take the same position.

Lebanon: Wants Israel to withdraw its forces from its self-proclaimed "security zone" in southern Lebanon, dissolve its proxy militia, the South Lebanon Army, and release some 300 Arab prisoners.

Jordan: Wants a settlement for the Palestinians in the West Bank so they do not wind up staking their homeland on the East Bank in Jordan. It also would like to reach a comprehensive agreement on water-sharing rights.

Israel: Wants peace treaties without giving back any occupied land. Shamir has made the future of Jerusalem non-negotiable and has ruled out a freeze on settlements and withdrawal from all occupied territories. But Israel is ready to adopt an interim five-year plan that would grant Palestinians limited self- rule while maintaining control of the land, security arrangements and foreign affairs. Could bolt if it feels overly pressured.

GIVE & TAKE