Breezing into The Future

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A decade ago, windmills promised to be a clean, reliable source of power that could help wean America from its dependence on dirty fuels and foreign oil. The idea of harnessing an energy supply that was free as the breeze generated enough megawatts of excitement to light up an entire new industry. Spurred by generous government tax incentives, investors poured more than $2.5 billion into U.S. wind projects during the early 1980s.

But enthusiasm was not enough to propel the dream into reality. "Wind developed a reputation for not working, and it had the stigma of a tax scam," says Robert Thresher, the wind-program manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo. Eventually the problems caused power companies to back away. And by 1985, when the tax credits expired, the remaining wind towers began looking more and more like monuments to a lost cause.

Now, however, there's new energy in the wind. Engineers have used advanced technology to make wind turbines that are far more efficient and cost effective than those of yesteryear. Says J. Michael Davis, chief of renewable- energy programs at the U.S. Department of Energy: "These machines are real and reliable." Today's models are capable of meeting 10% of America's energy demand, and within 30 years, newer versions could provide for a quarter of the nation's power needs. Such figures have re-energized the manufacturers of wind-power equipment and attracted the interest of foreign competitors. Utilities are conducting wind surveys and starting pilot projects. And a new breed of wildcatter is scurrying to buy up wind rights -- licenses to erect what may be the oil wells of tomorrow.

For years, the wind industry's goal has been to produce power at rates similar to oil's: roughly a nickel for a kilowatt. Machines now operating in California can produce energy at 7 cents per kW. In areas of consistent high winds, the next generation, currently being deployed, will bring that cost down to 5 cents by 1995, and more advanced designs are likely to shave off another penny by the year 2000. While many locales do not have enough wind to use the technology, enhancements already in the works will expand by a factor of 20 the area of land that can generate wind power profitably, according to experts at the National Renewable Energy Lab.

Wind's success says something about a dicey political issue: Should government tamper with free enterprise to nurture a new technology? The answer for renewable energy sources is definitely yes. Had manufacturers and utilities not received state and federal assistance early on, the future of wind power would now be controlled by either Japan or Europe; both have consistently funded wind research. Today American technology dominates the field.

* In a sense, wind power has come full circle. In the early 1900s, most of the electricity on U.S. farms was provided by windmills. Those were replaced during the 1930s when the Rural Electrification Administration wired the countryside. But the oil embargoes and environmental concerns of the '70s prodded politicians to encourage the investigation of alternative energy sources. States began requiring their utilities to spend between 1% and 2% of profits on research, and the federal government added its generous tax credits for investments in renewables.