The Time Has Come to Help

Now is the time to provide economic aid to pro-reform republics of the new Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia and any other republics that break decisively with their communist past in 1992 deserve our help no less than did the new democracies of Eastern Europe in 1989. To put it bluntly, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and those like him in other republics must not fail.

It would have been a catastrophic mistake to provide large-scale assistance to the former Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev. Dominated by communist hard-liners until the August 1991 coup, hostile to free elections and self- determination for the nations of the Soviet Union, and addicted to economic half measures, his government adopted reforms to strengthen the communist system, not to abandon it. With the final lowering of the red flag of the Soviet Union on Christmas Day, that situation changed decisively. The Soviet people finally achieved their deepest aspiration -- not reform under communism but reform without communism. Unfortunately, the West has been slow in committing itself to a comprehensive program of assistance to reform-minded republics.

Much of that reluctance stems from those who overcommitted themselves to Gorbachev. Unlike Gorbachev, Yeltsin has met the conditions to qualify for aid. He led a genuine democratic revolution, winning the Russian presidency through free elections, standing heroically against the August coup, and supporting self-determination for the non-Russian nations. He has expressed a firm intention to resolve outstanding geopolitical issues in ways consistent with our interests. And with the freeing of most prices on Jan. 2, he has staked his political life on the rapid creation of a free-market economy in Russia.

The West should help Yeltsin's Russia for two reasons.

First, no better alternative exists. His staff, which includes the best economic thinkers in Russia, understands what needs to be done. Yeltsin also has unmatched political capital and the courage to tell his people that things will get much worse before they get any better. He has fielded Russia's A team. But in light of the country's shortage of free-market expertise, there is no B team. If Yeltsin's reforms fail, no successor will be able to do any better.

Second, the reform of Russia is a key to the reform of the other republics. We should provide large-scale assistance only to those republics that hold free elections, protect minority rights and adopt free-market reforms. So far, only Russia has met all three conditions. By assisting Yeltsin's government, we will create an incentive for reform elsewhere. Moreover, if the free market succeeds in Russia, it will inexorably spread to the other republics. For the first time in its history, Russia will lead not by force of its arms but by force of its example.

Nonetheless, the West should not entertain illusions about launching a new Marshall Plan. Postwar Western Europe needed only an economic jump start, but markets in the former Soviet Union need to be invented. Beyond humanitarian aid, we can improve the odds for successful reform in four ways:

! -- Create a U.S.-led organization to spearhead Western aid efforts. The West has failed to organize itself to cope with the magnitude of the task the post- cold war world confronts.