Is Bill Clinton For Real?

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But how cogent is his program? His proposals are more detailed than usual for candidates at this stage and contain nothing that seems flagrantly silly. Most are at worst debatable, and they do hang together rather than contradict one another. Some specifics:

-- Taxes. Like two of the other candidates, Clinton promises a middle-class tax cut, but he has at least thought it out. His idea: reduce the tax rates on income up to $82,150 from 15% and 28% now to 13.5% and 26.5%; keep the present 31% rate on further income up to $200,000 but raise it to 38.5% on amounts above that. Supposedly these changes would collect the same amount of revenue as the present rates, but more equitably. Clinton also would allow entrepreneurs to exclude from tax 50% of their capital gains, but only on profits from money invested in new businesses and kept there for five years. He would grant tax credits on purchases of new plants and equipment, but only to small and medium-size businesses and only for purchases that exceed the average for the prior three years. The purpose is to spur new investment without giving a windfall to individuals and companies that cash in profits on investments made years ago or merely continue their existing level of buying plants and equipment.

-- Recession. A nonpartisan criticism of Clinton's tax program is that it might help the economy in the long run but would do nothing to jolt it out of the present slump. To do that, the Governor proposes a variety of measures: speeded-up spending on highway construction, new regulations that would prevent banks from foreclosing on homeowners or business people who can at least keep up interest payments on their loans. Generally, these ideas seem helpful but insufficient.

-- Defense. Clinton would chop $100 billion out of the military budget over the next five years, on top of the $100 billion Bush already proposes to cut. Some suggestions: cancel the B-2 bomber and the SDI antimissile program, cut another two Army divisions and two aircraft-carrier battle groups, in addition to the reductions Bush has suggested.

-- Social programs. A main element of Clinton's much touted "new covenant" between the Government and its citizens is his plan to ditch the $6 billion student-loan program and replace it with an $8 billion program that would extend funds to any student entering college -- but require repayment, either through deductions from future earnings or by two years of low-paid community service as a police officer, child-care worker or the like.

At times, the Governor is trying to find the middle ground on issues where none seems to exist. He has said abortion should be "safe, legal and rare" -- a formulation likely to strike moralists on both sides as waffling pure and simple. On foreign policy, he takes an internationalist line, agreeing with Bush on some matters but flaying him on others, notably for continuing "to coddle China." On trade, he is generally antiprotectionist and favors a free- trade pact with Mexico. But he has said the U.S. should tell the Japanese that "if they don't play by our rules, we'll play by theirs."