Nipping At Clinton's Heels

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It was late in coming, but election-year madness has finally gripped New Hampshire. Candidates accost voters on frigid streets, knots of campaign workers wave placards in shopping malls, and a blizzard of campaign commercials blankets prime-time airwaves. But the familiar trappings disguise even more volatility than usual as the nation's first primary moves to its climax. Though Bill Clinton is the media-anointed front runner, easily two- thirds of the likely Democratic voters are in flux, and the fortunes of his four main rivals have been fluctuating erratically.

Only now is the Democrats' Silly Putty politics beginning to assume some semblance of structure. Though Bob Kerrey, Paul Tsongas and Tom Harkin still strive to overtake Clinton in New Hampshire, each could survive to fight in later rounds by running a respectable second here. Jerry Brown, who started as the most prominent in a field of little-knowns, must fend off disaster in this contest or find a launching pad elsewhere. The strategies of Clinton's four main rivals:

Brown as Ishmael.

The former California Governor has three distinctions. He is the only one who has sought the nomination before. He bases his pitch exclusively on a crusade to purify the political process. And according to a poll published last week by the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, only Brown has an overall negative rating among the state's voters. His constant attacks on his rivals as prisoners of the old politics make him seem like a single-issue Ishmael. Though his relatively high name recognition allows him to score well in national polls, that edge is absent in New Hampshire, where the other candidates are becoming known. His low-budget campaign appears to be getting nowhere in this state, so he is investing more of his time elsewhere.

Harkin strikes again.

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin staked out his turf early. Starting six months ago, he enlisted important allies in the labor movement and the state party leadership. He roused audiences with his muscular evocation of old-fashioned liberalism and scathing attacks on George Bush. Then he stalled. Observes Mark Mackenzie, president of the state AFL-CIO: "Harkin has had some trouble moving beyond his initial stump speech."

Last week Harkin was desperately trying to pump juice into his campaign. Calling a press conference in 5 degrees weather at a sewer-construction site, he proclaimed himself "the only real Democrat in the race" and said his rivals were "all just shades of Republican policies." He accused "the Governor of Arkansas" of being too sympathetic to Japanese automobile imports. Belatedly he began running TV spots that ply the theme "I want to be known as the President that rebuilt America." Harkin thinks that as the only red-blooded liberal, he can eke out a plurality among traditional Democrats while his sound-alike rivals divide the rest. But this year even some labor chiefs and left-leaning activists yearn for a winner who can reach well beyond the New Deal heritage. So far, Harkin isn't even trying.

Kerrey misfires and rearms.