Will Someone Else Leap In?

And so the big Democratic winner in the New Hampshire primary, the man who will use his victory there to roll his way to the nomination in July, turns out to be . . . er . . . uh . . . nobody. Or at least not any of the five principal candidates who were on the ballot. It could possibly be someone who still is not officially in the race but who may yet try to pull off a feat unthinkable even four years ago and just barely imaginable now: plunging into the contest in its late stages and emerging with the nomination.

This scenario could be flawed. If there is one thing that the quadrennial slogging through New Hampshire has taught Americans, it is never to take anything for granted until the last votes there are counted. And the past few times around the track, the true shape of the race -- who was the real front runner, who the principal challenger, who the also-rans -- has not been visible until Super Tuesday in early March, or even some of the big industrial-state primaries in April.

It is increasingly difficult, however, to visualize any of the starting five lifting his arms in the traditional V before an adoring convention come July -- let alone graciously accepting George Bush's concession on Election Night. Bill Clinton for a time looked like a deflating balloon, the air hissing out of his candidacy through a new pinhole labeled Draft Avoidance, as well as the previous puncture made by Gennifer Flowers. He has enough money and organizational support, especially in his native South, to remain a force at least through Super Tuesday on March 10. But even if he could start a comeback, he would not soon -- if ever -- regain the aura of inevitability he enjoyed in January.

Paul Tsongas had put on an amazing sprint to take the lead in New Hampshire polls. But he still seemed a regional New England candidate, and the more he is taken seriously, the harder questions about his health and stamina (he has recovered from lymphoma) will become. Bob Kerrey and Tom Harkin by all ; appearances had failed to strike any sparks among the voters, and Jerry Brown still looked to be in a private orbit somewhere.

But the Democrats eventually have to nominate somebody. So the approach of actual voting paradoxically intensified the vulture watch -- the speculation among party pros that another candidate, or possibly even several, could try a late swoopdown on the prize. California Democratic chairman Phil Angelides puts on the record a sentiment many others voice privately: "If one of these ((present five)) candidates proves big enough and strong enough, he will be the nominee. But if they cannot successfully make the case, then the party will look more broadly."

Friends of House majority leader Richard Gephardt have already sounded out potential contributors. Talk is that the Missourian might enter the race as early as Thursday or Friday of this week, putting into effect a fairly detailed contingency plan he has developed to take advantage of a serious stumble by Clinton.