Politics Sweet Smell of Success

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Bill Clinton is the first Democratic presidential contender since Jimmy Carter to attract black voters without alienating blue-collar whites. He is popular among women, union members, veterans and the unemployed, both North - and South. He talks tough on welfare without criticizing the poor and supports the death penalty without turning off liberals. He has a strong organization, loads of powerful friends, a lightning mind and a damage-control system that could have kept the Titanic afloat. He trounced his remaining two rivals so badly during crucial primaries in Illinois and Michigan last week that Paul Tsongas suspended his campaign, leaving only Jerry Brown still snapping at his heels. And while he has seven more months to prepare for the November election, polls already show Clinton running dead even against George Bush.

Not bad for a candidate who nearly knocked himself out of the race only a month ago.

"We've got the fat lady tapping the mike, getting ready to sing," says Paul Tully, political director of the Democratic National Committee. Yet Clinton's latest victories do not guarantee that his road to the nomination will be a ceremonial stroll. Plenty of Democrats fear his campaign may be doomed when he squares off against Bush, and the fat lady is no fool. Even as he pummeled his opponents at the polls, Clinton has been dogged by questions of electability. In the fall, as Republicans go knock, knock, knocking on Clinton's closet door in search of another lady in red, those questions will return with a vengeance.

That prospect is excruciating for a party long cursed by fatally flawed standard bearers. "The idea that a misplaced love letter could keep us out of the White House for another four years makes me ill," says a Democratic fund raiser in Chicago. Clinton's defenders take comfort in the fact that their candidate has survived months of scrutiny by the press and voters. "He's got presidential stature, and he's convinced a lot of people that he can win," says Ed Scribner, president of the Metropolitan Detroit AFL-CIO. "When he started out, there were some problems with his private life, but I think most people in our union look at that as a private matter and do not think it takes away from his ability to run this country." But that reasoning ignores the fact that Clinton has yet to face the toughest character test of all: a multimillion-dollar assault by the Republicans.

Even before that struggle begins, Clinton has to shake Brown from his pant leg, or at least figure out how to prevent the former California Governor from drawing too much blood between now and the nomination. Tsongas' departure enables Clinton to quicken his march to the nomination; he already has nearly half the 2,145 delegates he needs, while Tsongas has 430, and Brown 129. But unlike Tsongas, Brown can't be starved out of the race, because he lives off the land, foraging for petty cash with his 800 number. He vows to wage an insurgent war for "the soul of the Democratic Party" in the remaining primaries and caucuses, painting Clinton as a political insider and protector of the status quo. "If you feel things are more or less O.K., that's Bill Clinton," says Brown. "If you feel that this country is decidedly on the wrong track, this is your campaign."