The Political Interest: Clinton's Foreign Policy Jujitsu

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Even before Paul Tsongas quit the show last week, an aide to Bill Clinton described the front runner's new focus in three words: "Bush, Bush, Bush." Clinton believes that a successful presidential candidate must view the primary- and general-election campaigns as a single play in two acts rather than as two one-act dramas; the sooner one can articulate the general campaign's themes the better. So if the schedule holds -- and perhaps as early as this week -- the nominee-presumptive will deliver a major foreign policy address.

Why foreign affairs and why now? With the anemic economy showing signs of recovery, Clinton knows that in the fall Bush will be playing his strongest card and that even in a world of reduced threats Clinton must pass the threshold test: Can Americans trust him as Commander in Chief? Better, then, to lay some markers down early, especially when his critique and prescriptions are essentially centrist. There is also the possibility for an elegant piece of what Mario Cuomo calls "political jujitsu" -- stealing your opponent's thunder in an area he is perceived as owning.

To accomplish this trick, the probable centerpiece of Clinton's speech will involve how and to what extent the U.S. should aid the former Soviet Union. Stung by Pat Buchanan's isolationist attacks and the common criticism that he has spent too much time on foreign affairs, Bush has virtually ignored the issue. In pleading poverty ("There isn't a lot of money around . . . I don't have a blank check") and refusing to heed Richard Nixon's warnings about chaos and a return to dictatorship in the Commonwealth of Independent States, Bush has offered Clinton a window of opportunity. (If it closes, if Bush jumps out with his own ideas for C.I.S. assistance before Clinton can, the candidate will shift his emphasis.)

Clinton is already on record as favoring a sizable C.I.S. aid program, so his upcoming remarks will represent an elaboration rather than an expedient first-time treatment of the issue. "We should spend a couple of billion dollars for food and medical shipments and to help the C.I.S. dismantle its nuclear weapons and to help the republics convert to a marketable currency and a market economy," Clinton said several months ago. "Spending now will save us billions in lower defense costs forever and will within five or so years increase trade opportunities dramatically."