Growing Pains

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HOW'S THIS FOR A SIGN OF political maturity: blood runs in the streets as soldiers repeatedly fire into crowds of protesting citizens intent on forcing government changes. In most countries those events would be interpreted as a sign of catastrophic breakdown. But in Thailand they signal that the country no longer consists of a mass of illiterate peasants who meekly submit to military rule. That may have been true for most of the past six decades, but now a five-year economic boom has created an urban, affluent, well-educated middle class that is demanding a voice in politics, and it cannot be subdued by bullets. The very name given to the demonstrators by the Thai press -- mob mua thue, or mobile-phone mob -- testifies to the interaction of affluence and politics: democracy activists coordinated their protests by cellular telephone.

True enough, the democrats have not yet prevailed. Suchinda Kraprayoon, the general who made himself Prime Minister in April, stepped down Sunday after his coalition withdrew its support. But the generals in the past have proved adept at ruling through civilian figureheads. After 60 years holding the real power in the country, the military is deeply entrenched throughout society; these "businessmen in uniforms" own or control hundreds of enterprises, including two nationwide TV channels, 200 radio stations and their own bank. The army remains popular among peasants, who are still a majority of the population and provide most of the soldiers, and it has proved that it is ready to turn its guns on its own people, if necessary, to hang on to power. There is some fear now of another outright coup to keep the brass in control.

The revered King, Bhumibol Adulyadej, has tried to guide the country toward stability, but he has no legal power over political affairs. Belatedly, he did mediate a compromise last week to stop the bloodshed by getting the Suchinda government's promise not to block amendments to the Thai constitution that would trim the soldiers' authority. And he appointed an emissary, former Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda, to negotiate with Suchinda an amnesty agreement for those responsible for the crackdown. This apparently eased military objections to Suchinda's ouster.

Yet it seems unlikely that Thailand will go back to the political past. The violence in the streets showed just how much the country has changed; until then, Bangkok was the last place anyone would have looked for riots and bloodshed. Since the fall of the absolute monarchy in 1932, the country has experienced 10 successful coups, a number of failed ones and 14 constitutions. But only occasionally did violence occur in the so-called Land of Smiles. An old joke is that when a coup is attempted, usually both sides drive all their tanks into the street and then stop to count. Whoever has the most wins.

As recently as February 1991, the country sat still for a bloodless military coup that overthrew a more-than-usually-corrupt elected civilian government. Corruption at least was the stated reason for the coup; the real motivation was that the army feared that this government, unlike most nominally headed by civilians, would actually try to shake loose from the soldiers' behind-the- scenes control.