The 34% Solution

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IT IS AN AXIOM OF POLITICS THAT running for the White House involves a zig and then a zag: during the primaries, candidates of both parties normally concentrate on wooing the liberal or conservative wings of their parties; once nominated, they pivot toward the broad middle of the American electorate, where the White House is lost and won.

Dan Quayle's attempt to energize conservatives by attacking Murphy Brown shows just how different the 1992 campaign has already become. Ross Perot's pending entrance in the race -- and the possibility that he might attract between a quarter and a third or more of the vote this fall -- has George Bush and Bill Clinton paying unusually heavy tribute to their parties' core constituents. Instead of moving their candidates toward the center to win, both camps are seriously mulling over how to win the White House with just the thinnest plurality of voters. Call it the 34% solution.

The central calculation that Democrats and Republicans are now testing is whether it is possible to capture the presidency this fall with just their most ardent supporters plus a sliver of help from the independents, who seem increasingly devoted to Perot. Ultimately Bush and Clinton may have little choice: with Perot drawing most deeply from independents and matching Bush in national polls, it seems increasingly possible that the next President may win as little as 34% to 45% of the popular vote.

If a three-man race means a three-way split, that requires both Bush and Clinton to shore up their base support at all costs. "The question we're asking ourselves is whether there are enough conservatives and Republicans to make up 35% of the electorate," explained one Bush official. "Is our base big enough to win an election in a three-man race?"

Slow to realize Perot's potential, Bush's lieutenants are still split over the answer. White House chief of staff Sam Skinner, Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady and campaign chief Bob Mosbacher continue to doubt that the Perot challenge will survive past Labor Day. But Quayle, campaign chairman Bob Teeter and manager Fred Malek, stunned that Bush is dropping in the polls even while the economy is improving, are starting to hedge their bets.

The Vice President's attack on a fictional TV character is only the most blatant attempt by the White House to highlight issues dear to conservatives. Fearful of mouthing Quayle's controversial line, Bush will instead continue to sound law-and-order themes in the wake of the Los Angeles riots and will appease conservatives by vetoing a measure this week that lifts a four-year ban on federal fetal-tissue research. While such stands may not please a majority of American voters, Bush is not playing to the majority anymore. "The Murphy Brown thing is a big winner for us with our base," said one Bush official, "and holding on to our base is what we're concentrating on now."