Ever Greater Serbia

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Given the horrors visited upon Bosnia-Herzegovina, it is difficult to believe that the Yugoslav conflict could get much worse. But that is exactly what Western officials fear is likely to occur when Belgrade turns its attention to Kosovo, the predominantly Albanian province that is a disputed part of southern Serbia. A U.S. analyst says Serbian "ethnic cleansing" there is "inevitable"; a senior Administration official predicts the spark that ignites a bloody Kosovo war could come in "the next two or three months."

But this time, as in 1914, the conflagration could spread beyond Serbia. A Serb slaughter of Kosovars "is the point where the conflict will automatically trigger a wider Balkan war," says a U.S. official. It would almost certainly involve Albania and perhaps Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria and even Turkey. If two NATO members become embroiled, the alliance could also be dragged in. "It's our nightmare scenario," says a senior British diplomat.

For Kosovars, life is already a nightmare. They vastly outnumber the ethnic Serbs in the impoverished territory, 2 million to 200,000, but Serbs have the guns, control the government and run Kosovo as a brutal police state. The Albanian Human Rights Council reports an average of 190 beatings by police each month for the past year, often followed by jail sentences for "disturbing public order." It has also recorded 106 deaths and about 600 woundings of Kosovars by Serb security forces since Kosovars evicted from the provincial government by Serbs declared an independent republic in July 1990. Unemployment among ethnic Albanians is estimated at nearly 80% because Serb authorities have insisted upon mass firings -- more than 112,000 workers -- since the independence declaration. Kosovo's only university is closed to ethnic Albanians, and Albanian-language media have been stifled.

In the capital of Pristina, a dreary city of Stalinist-era high-rises scattered amid factory smokestacks and weed-infested lots, paramilitary units from Belgrade patrol the streets and carry out frequent identity checks. Hundreds of Yugoslav tanks are lined up at the large military base on the western edge of the city, a constant reminder of Serbian power. "Albanians are treated just like blacks in South Africa," says Avdush Bajgora, a 29- year-old doctor from Pristina. "It's complete apartheid."