His Turn to Lose

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Abimael Guzman was a successful revolutionary because he never flinched: he was willing to destroy Peru and as many innocent Peruvians as necessary to gain power. His Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path, movement, perhaps the most radical leftist insurgency still in operation anywhere in the world, sowed terror throughout the country during a 12-year campaign that took 25,000 lives, damaged $22 billion worth of property and left some Peruvians fearing that his "forces of history" might achieve victory. That is, until last week -- when Guzman was captured by government forces in a bloodless raid on a modest house in one of Lima's middle-class neighborhoods.

Even with Guzman behind bars, the war for control of the country is not over. But Peruvians savored the sudden feeling of relief -- none more so than the autocratic Alberto Fujimori, who has turned his presidency into a virtual dictatorship, partly to quell the revolution. "Our fear was broken from one day to another," was how Isabel Coral, who works with victims of Shining Path violence, greeted the arrest. In their recent year long assault on Lima, the guerrillas had come close to terrorizing the populace into capitulation. Guzman's arrest not only halted that momentum but, more important, it gave the government's anti-guerrilla campaign a welcome boost. "In a struggle like this one, morale and will decide who wins," said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs Bernard Aronson. "Perhaps this capture provides what Peru needs most: hope and confidence that it can prevail."

Although the immediate credit goes to the painstaking work of DINCOTE, Peru's anti-terrorism squad, Fujimori will reap the biggest reward. He had promised to pacify the country by the time his term ends in 1995. But he lost international support in April, when he unilaterally dissolved Peru's Congress, shut down the courts and suspended the constitution -- largely in the name of thwarting Shining Path. Frustrated Peruvians approved, but the U.S. was so angry that it suspended aid. Now, in the congressional elections that Fujimori has called for Nov. 22, candidates who back him are expected to | win big, and they could help him enshrine strong presidential powers in a new constitution. The capture may also ensure his re-election. Warns Gustavo Gorriti, a Peruvian journalist and expert on Sendero who lives in the U.S. but was briefly detained in Peru after the Fujimori coup: "The fall of Guzman, the main enemy of democracy, is paradoxically going to do a lot of harm to democracy in the short term by strengthening Fujimori."