The Dark Forces Are Growing Stronger: EDUARD SHEVARDNADZE

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Q. Do Boris Yeltsin -- and democracy -- have a better chance to succeed in Russia than Mikhail Gorbachev did?

A. Yeltsin is in great difficulty. He doesn't speak much about it. But I can see, as he describes it, that the dark forces are becoming stronger. It is a very dangerous moment.

Q. What are these dark forces?

A. They are even more reactionary than the former communists: the most extreme reactionaries of the communists and the chauvinists. I would put them somewhere approaching fascism.

Q. As elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, Georgia faces a separatist conflict in the region of Abkhazia. Do you fear it may turn into a quagmire?

A. The entire territory that used to constitute the Soviet Union is in a quagmire today. These countries have not had independence for a long, long time. Georgia was part of Russia for 2 1/2 centuries, and now that it has started building a new independent society, it encounters many difficulties. We sometimes have a sense that there are no prospects. We have an economy that is absolutely ruined. Conflicts are raging in the former Soviet Union. In my opinion, these are not the last conflicts. Other conflicts are to be expected, and they will be on a larger scale. But I think the law of necessity will work; Abkhasians and Georgians, for example, have to live together. Even though this has been a tragic event with casualties, it will increase the responsibility of both sides.

Q. What are those larger conflicts?

A. Social conflicts. They are the greatest danger now. There is conflict in Russia, in the Caucasus. I don't believe that these countries will be able to rebuild their economies themselves; their economies are ruined. I think some bad things may follow. If it were only Georgia, it would not be disastrous for the whole world. It is impossible to say how it will take place, because it will happen spontaneously, and it will not be a long process. It may start in one republic and immediately engulf the others.

Q. Should we write off the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States?

A. The Commonwealth will definitely not be able to solve all these problems. It is not a mechanism that is capable of taking serious decisions, unfortunately.

Q. What is that mechanism?

A. I think very serious discussions are necessary on an international level. If the social explosion starts, it is not going to be a local explosion; it is going to go beyond borders.

Q. If you were Boris Yeltsin, would you trust the army?

A. I think the army is part of the problem, but it is not homogeneous. There are democratically oriented officers, but I am not sure that the most important units are in their hands. But if he doesn't trust the army, what can he do? It is a cruel logic.

Q. Can Russia hold together?

A. Yes, as long as it can stabilize the economy. But if the economic crisis continues, it will be very difficult.

Q. Are nuclear weapons still a problem?

A. If we ask which is more dangerous: nuclear confrontation or the hazards of social explosion, social explosion is much more likely, and at the moment, it is much more dangerous.

Q. Does the outside world have a responsibility, or should we mind our own business and let you solve the problems?