Three's a Crowd

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IN THE FINAL WEEKS OF A PRESIDENtial campaign, candidates must confront two crucial questions -- how to win undecided voters and which key swing states to focus on. Now George Bush and Bill Clinton face a third and most unwelcome challenge: how to cope with the latest mischiefmaking of Ross Perot. The Dallas billionaire hinted broadly that he would be back in the race this week, then fudged on the details. Perot has orchestrated a showcase meeting of his centurions, who are to hear from Bush and Clinton representatives this week, and has scheduled yet another appearance on his favorite TV soapbox, Larry King Live. Perot's stated price for staying out of the race is for the other candidates to adopt his austere economic program wholesale. Since neither Bush nor Clinton will do that -- the drastic plan would throw the country into deep recession -- the working assumption at both major camps is that Perot will haunt the campaign's last five weeks.

Though Perot did succeed in getting his name on all 50 state ballots, his latest incarnation as a candidate would be only a shadow of his summer self, before he stunned his supporters by quitting the field on July 16. Last June, a few surveys showed him tied with Bush and ahead of Clinton. A new TIME/CNN poll of likely voters last week put Perot a distant third, pulling 13% if he remained inactive and 17% if he announced his candidacy. Just as important, negative feelings about him have risen significantly. Only 25% now view him favorably, against 46% who have an unfavorable impression. It is unlikely that a few weeks of TV advertising and talk-show appearances would increase public affection for him much. And even in a season when conventional politics and politicians are unpopular, most voters do not wish to waste their ballots on a sure loser.

Still, Perot has the capacity to rattle the chessboard. He could qualify to participate in a televised debate if Bush and Clinton ever agree to hold one. In that and other public forums, he would presumably attack the mushy economic proposals of both opponents. As he said on CBS This Morning last week: "Is it too much to expect presidential candidates to be able to add?" Anticipating more of this, Clinton's advisers are considering plans to refine their candidate's delivery to give more emphasis to deficit reduction. But their main concern at the moment is how a three-way debate on economic policy could highlight the only line of attack against Clinton that has so far proved effective: a classic "tax and spend liberal." Last week's poll shows that 47% think that label accurately describes Clinton, in contrast to 39% a month before.

Yet the survey indicates that Perot would have little impact on the competition for popular votes between Bush and Clinton. In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads by 12 percentage points among likely voters -- twice the margin he enjoyed a month earlier, just after the Republican National Convention. Adding Perot's name shaves just 1 percentage point from Clinton's lead. But aggregate numbers can be deceptive. The critical questions are where Perot would have the greatest impact and whether he would attempt to act out his hostility toward Bush by targeting states that the President must win.