Three-Ring Political Circus

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TWO WEEKS AGO, PEROT ADMITted that his withdrawal had been "a mistake," signaling his intention to rejoin the race. His requests that state coordinators meet with delegations from the Clinton and Bush campaigns in Dallas last week and then canvass the volunteers on whether he should run were regarded as mere formalities. On the one hand, the Perotistas criticized the Clinton envoys for promising to use income generated by upper-income tax hikes to cut middle-class taxes rather than reduce the deficit. On the other hand, the volunteers found the Bush team vague on entitlement cuts and short on evidence to support their claim to drastic deficit reduction in five years. + Perhaps the strangest point of the meetings came when Jack Kemp, the excitable Housing Secretary famous for abandoning Bush whenever the urge hits him, bounded to his feet and exclaimed, "Run, Ross! Run, Ross, and let the chips fall where they may."

When Perot formally announced his candidacy last Thursday, he insisted that he was getting back in because "the volunteers in all 50 states have asked me." Betraying a striking ignorance of how he is now perceived by the general public, he later said, "The people want a new political climate, where the system does not attract ego-driven, power-hungry people." Perot's brief appearance before the press gave his supporters little reason for optimism. His brusque handling of a few questions -- "Just have fun, get raises and bonuses, play gotcha. I don't care," he snapped at reporters -- revealed that the distemper that drove him from the race three months ago will hamper his path to redemption.

But the Texan is not likely to hold many press conferences. His campaign strategy will focus on national television -- not only on shows like Larry King Live, whose softball questions and free airtime inflated the Perot bubble in the first place, but also on large amounts of paid advertising. He has already committed a million dollars to buy half-hour blocks of network television time this week.

Will that be enough to rekindle the support that actually had Perot leading in some polls last spring? Highly doubtful. Surveys conducted by the Clinton camp agree with a published poll showing that nearly three-quarters of Americans now have no intention of voting for Perot; Bush's aides peg Perot's support at no more than 14%.

Clinton says he won't change his strategy to contend with Perot's return. That's partly bravado talking: Perot may make it somewhat easier for Bush to win in the Deep South as well as in some of the more closely fought battleground states, such as New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, Perot does put Clinton closer to victory in some Western states and may even tip Texas and its 32 electoral votes into the Clinton camp. As one Bush official put it, "By and large, Perot is a wash, a net nothing. It doesn't close the current gap or change the numbers in our favor."