The Long Road

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Almost. That strategy did knock out Tsongas, leaving only Jerry Brown to carry the Anybody-but-Clinton banner. Brown himself was no threat, but if he could have bloodied Clinton enough in New York and Pennsylvania, he might have kept many uncommitted delegates from joining Clinton, prompted some late- starting candidates to jump in, and kept alive the possibility of a brokered convention. At this point, however, Clinton proved the value of having developed and touted a comprehensive economic program. Aside from some other stupid errors, Brown pinned all his hopes on an eccentric proposal for a flat tax that even some of his supporters had trouble swallowing. Clinton trounced the Californian in New York and Pennsylvania and in effect locked up the nomination.

THE JUNE TURNAROUND

The nomination, but certainly not the election. By June, Clinton's campaign had hit rock bottom. Perot had entered the race, and for a time drew so much attention as to push Clinton almost out of sight. While Perot rocketed in the polls, Clinton sank to a bad third, pulling only 25%. On top of that, the campaign had run $4 million into debt. Somewhat surprisingly, though, that proved the easiest problem to fix. Aides whomped up a direct-mail campaign that quickly raised the money.

Perot was, and became again, a tougher problem. The Governor rejected any idea of adopting a more traditionally liberal program in hopes of holding enough of the Democrats' core constituency -- perhaps 35% of the vote -- to eke out victory in a three-man race. Clinton insisted on sticking with his broadly based centrist program and was quickly -- though temporarily -- rewarded. Not only did Perot quit the race, as some in the Clinton camp had rather wistfully predicted; he did it on July 16, only hours before Clinton delivered his acceptance speech to the Democratic Convention. For good measure, the mercurial Texan praised the way the Democratic Party had "revitalized itself." Even after he re-entered the campaign on Oct. 1, Perot appeared to be helping more than hurting Clinton, who returned the favor by not attacking him and even praised Perot for focusing public attention on the deficit. During the debates, the Texan aimed nearly all his sharpest barbs at Bush, while in effect defending the Democrat against the President's attacks on the draft issue by contending that it really no longer mattered what Clinton had done in 1969.

Clinton and his aides made a number of other critical June moves that pulled the campaign out of its doldrums. The candidate issued a new economic program, titled "Putting People First," late in the month. It served to refocus public attention on Clinton as the candidate offering specific ideas, at the very time Perot was coming under increasing fire for talking only vague generalities. "Perot's biggest mistake was not releasing a plan of his own," says a Clinton insider. "If he had, it's possible we might have ended up being the third candidate in the race." (Perot's advisers did eventually produce a highly detailed plan -- but only after the Texan's July 16 dropout.)

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