Iraqi Miscalculation

THE WORKINGS OF HIS MIND ARE A MYSTERY TO ORdinary people and foreign policy analysts alike, but Saddam Hussein may have thought he could take advantage of the transition in Washington to violate the U.N. coalition's no-fly zone in southern Iraq. He miscalculated. On Dec. 27 a pair of Iraqi MiGs committed the double offense of entering the zone and then turning to confront U.S. F-16s. The American aircraft shot down one MiG; the other fled to Iran. Iraqi officials blasted the incident as "blatant aggression." President Bush said the shootdown was consistent with the need to enforce U.N. resolutions, and President-elect Bill Clinton gave him solid support. A day later, even as the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk was diverted from Somalia to the Persian Gulf, Iraqi warplanes violated the zone again, but retreated when U.S. fighters approached.