The Political Interest the First 100 Days

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There is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful of success, than to step up as a leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.

-- Niccolo Machiavelli

Bill Clinton, apostle of the new and different, a President who has already proved Machiavelli's assertion, asks to be judged by the toughest standard imaginable. Throughout the campaign, Clinton routinely promised a first 100 days reminiscent of Franklin Roosevelt's action-filled three-month push to lift America from the Great Depression. No matter that the F.D.R. yardstick is arbitrary -- and even foolish given the blessed lack of a galvanizing crisis like the one America faced in 1933. "I think it's been a very productive 100 days . . . we've made terrific progress," White House press secretary Dee Dee Myers said last Wednesday, eight days shy of the mark and a few hours before the President himself said, "There's a lot I have to learn about this town." Myers' optimism aside ("What else could she say," asks a sympathetic White House colleague, "that time flies when you're screwing up?"), the Administration is clearly reeling. The impressive litany of proposals Clinton recited last week (including new education, environmental, ethics and welfare policies) are all works in progress. The few concrete results to date are minor, and the public knows the difference. With the exception of Gerald Ford (whose pardon of Richard Nixon rocked the nation), Clinton has a disapproval rating higher than that of any other President at a comparable point. New polls show voters prefer lower taxes and fewer services over higher taxes for more services, a rebuke to the essence of Clinton's program. Perhaps most distressing for the President, for the first time since the euphoria that greeted his election, a large plurality of Americans think the nation is on "the wrong track." Political recovery is possible, even likely; all Presidents have their ups and downs. There are, however, trends worth noting and early warnings worth observing.

Great salesman that he is, Clinton can be viewed as a victim of his own success. His insistence on deficit reduction -- and his cajoling of Congress to support a multiyear plan to accomplish it -- is the very definition of courage in modern American politics. "He has stirred into life a debate from which the republic could have greatly benefited had it taken place a decade earlier," says the historian Arthur Schlesinger. "He has broken the taboo that has long banned the tax question from public discussion." Should he then be blamed when Republicans follow his lead and scuttle a pork-laden, deficit- increasing stimulus package whose impact on the economy would have been marginal at best? "Maybe, maybe not," says a Clinton adviser, "but the real story is about the President losing his touch. He can't get the modulation right. He's not quite sure how to use his power to press for what he wants and how to preserve it when bending is the wiser course."